Farmers may hope for repeat of 2020 bounce

Published 2:02 pm Monday, October 25, 2021

A seasonal low is setting into the grain markets, and with little news coming in, it might stick around.

Midland Research analyst Jerry Gidel said the slowdown in market prices is typically expected at this time of year, leading to a bit less farmer selling as harvest rolls on into mid-to-late October.

“It’s a normal harvest pressure situation mentality,” Gidel said. “I can’t really say we have a tremendous amount of producers selling in here to say the least, but the psychology of the harvest period always seems to keep the buyers on the outside.”

The only place unexpected sales might be occurring is in regions like the western Corn Belt, he said. Expectations were lower on crop size as drought hit the region, but some farmers are seeing better yields they might not have planned for.

“There’s some decent yields that potentially could cause a lack of storage capability,” Gidel said.

The price action seen last year at harvest time also may be driving people to hold back their crop. Gidel pointed out that prices jumped after harvest sales were made, which has some sellers looking to hold on to their crop.

“Last year’s event where we had a significant price increase from the fall through the spring definitely ticked off a lot of people,” Gidel said. “That leads to more of that attitude now. Is that the right approach? I’m not sure, but I’m optimistic (for prices) as we might have some issues through the first of the year — seasonal demand and weather issues in South America.”

Any change in weather or export news will drive the market direction for the next couple of weeks, Gidel said, as the market watches the late-October yield reports come in. Any delays that may pop up could give a boon to the market as the weather gets colder.