Reid Kerr

After three games, the NFL season starts to take shape.

It’s easy to recognize the high points. Dak Prescott is back and better than ever. Matthew Stafford was the perfect fit for the Rams. Cincinnati is enjoying the rush of having someone on their team who actually wants to win. Arizona is exciting, the Raiders are fun to watch, and Aaron Rodgers is unstoppable in the last two minutes again.

These are all good stories, and easy to notice. But remember, the secret to picking games isn’t to identify the good teams, but to make sure you know who is consistently awful. With that in mind, here’s some notes from the dumpster fire section of the league.

+The Jets haven’t scored a touchdown in two games. Even better, they didn’t even get inside the Red Zone last week. If this continues, their opening kickoff may be the deepest possession they get all game long.

+The Dolphins somehow became the first team in NFL history to give up a safety after a completed pass. No fumble, no interception, no penalty, just a play call so bad the other team got two points out of it.

+Jacksonville is a game away from having the second-longest losing streak in NFL history, trailing only the expansion Tampa Bay Bucs of 1976-77, who certainly had a better reason to be monumentally awful.

+Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy still doesn’t know how to handle a game clock, which is a skill that literally anyone who has played Madden in the last 33 years understands.

+Ben Roethlisberger is aging right before our eyes. Last week he checked the ball down to Najee Harris an astounding 19 times, which means the Steelers may have to look into calling an Uber to take the ball downfield, because that’s the only way it’s going more than 15 yards.

+This year’s rookie quarterbacks are winless against the rest of the league, going 1-12 in their starts and the only win coming in the rookie-on-rookie Pats-Jets game. I’ve always said a quarterback’s fortunes depend on ability, mental acuity, and not getting drafted by the Jets.

Now on to the picks. In week three I went 3-3, and 4-2 against the Vegas spread. In my defense, I didn’t expect the Steelers to go into rebuilding mode in the middle of the second quarter. I’m now 8-10 on the season, and 8-9-1 against Vegas, which means this week I’ll be striving for mediocrity. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Carolina (plus 5) at Dallas: In terms of “completely unexpected pleasant surprises,” I’d have to put this year’s Cowboys defense near the top of my list, just behind “Ted Lasso” and just ahead of “Terducken.”

Pick: Cowboys to win but not cover, which means I think they’ll win by four or fewer points.

Detroit (plus 3) at Chicago: The Lions gave up a fourth-and-19 conversion and a 66-yard field goal, all within the last 30 seconds of last week’s game. Meanwhile last week, the Bears had one net passing yard. This game is truly the stoppable force against the movable object.

Pick: Lions to win it outright.

Kansas City (minus 7) at Philadelphia: The Chiefs are under .500 for the first time since that movie was out where we had to rescue Matt Damon from Mars. As opposed to the one where we had to rescue him from World War II. Or any of the movies where we had to rescue Damon in space. Say what you want about Ben Affleck, but at least we never have to mount a costly mission to get him back. Affleck gets lost, we leave him there.

Pick: Chiefs to win, but not cover, winning by six or fewer.

Tampa Bay (minus 7) at New England: Bill Belichick might not sell his soul to beat Tom Brady in this one, but he’d definitely sell all of the other souls he’s collected over the years.

Pick: Bucs to win but not cover, winning by six or fewer.

NY Giants (plus 7) at New Orleans: This is an interesting matchup, the Saints are an up-and-down team so far, while the Giants are more of a bad-or-worse team.

Pick: Saints to win and cover, winning by seven or more.

Arizona (plus 4.5) at LA Rams: This will be an epic battle between two very exciting teams that I don’t believe in one bit for the postseason.

Pick: Rams to win and cover, winning by five or more.

I’ll also take the Bills over the Texans, Chargers to beat the Raiders, and the Manning Brothers Monday Night Football simulcast to go away after this season. Good luck, everybody.

– Reid Kerr just hopes both teams have fun. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.