Commentary: Picking Week One In the NFL

Published 6:00 am Saturday, September 10, 2022

Reid Kerr

The happiest Sunday of the year has finally arrived, my friends. Oh, I know Super Bowl Sunday is better in two cities, but this week, everyone is undefeated. Everyone has playoff dreams. Every rookie is an up and coming Pro Bowler, every quarterback is just the guy his offense needs, and every defensive back is a shut-down corner.

Yes, even Detroit has hope this year. Week one is crazy, y’all.



Here’s how excited I was for the start of the season. Thursday night, snacks in hand, I sat down to watch the Bills and Rams on a streaming service. About halfway through the first drive, my internet went out, thus turning my television into a giant useless window. My internet company, who we’ll just call “Net Good At All,” texted me that they were working on it and it would be fixed by a certain time, which was right around the estimated conclusion of the game.

Now normally, you could hear my profane shouts in at least three different time zones. But because it was the opening of football season, I was content to watch this one on my phone. You know, ignoring the enormous TV I dropped a couple of car payments for, and instead transfixed by a tiny screen I was carrying in my hand, walking around the house. Any football is good football at this point.

When the game was over, I just went to bed, still excited about the game. I woke up Friday and decided to send my internet provider a bag of flaming dog poop with my September payment, but still.

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Now on to the picks. In my time here at the paper, I am now 309-185-2 picking games in the regular season, and 371-342-15 against the Las Vegas spread. After the Thursday opener, I’m 0-1 in both, but I don’t mind at all. Here’s the rules, I’ll pick at least six games every weekend for you, both straight up and against the Las Vegas spread. As an editorial note, that’s the last time I’ll pick a Buffalo game in the regular season. I am a lifelong Bills fan and as such, used to crushing disappointment, so there’s no way I can be objective there. As always, my picks are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Tampa Bay (-2.5) at Dallas: This game is a battle between two teams with offensive lines already so beaten up, the NFL should hold a telethon for them.

Pick: Cowboys to win it outright.

Indianapolis (-7) at Houston: Matt Ryan is the newest player to enroll in the Colts’ last-stop-before-retirement plan. Indianapolis is quickly becoming the Del Boca Vista of the NFL.

Pick: Colts to win and cover, winning by more than seven.

New Orleans (-5.5) at Atlanta: When I try and picture Atlanta, all I see is a Falcons helmet with a big red question mark on it.

Pick: Saints to win and cover, winning by six or more.

Cleveland at Carolina (Pick ‘em): This game reminds me of the old parable “I was sad because I had Baker Mayfield for my quarterback, until I met a team willing to trade for him.”

Pick: Browns to win it.

Kansas City (-6) at Arizona: My prediction, Patrick Mahomes throws touchdowns to 17 different receivers, thus driving Chiefs fans and fantasy football players crazy for two wildly different reasons.

Pick: Chiefs to win but not cover, winning by five or fewer points.

Jacksonville (+2.5) at Washington: If you’re watching this game for any reason other than fantasy football, you’ve made a serious planning error. And for that matter, your fantasy football team involving this game indicates a pattern of mistakes, too.

Pick: Commanders to win and cover, winning by three or more. Please don’t make me watch this.

I’ll also take the Eagles over the Lions, Ravens over the Jets, and Apple+ over Netflix. Good luck, everybody.

Reid Kerr just hopes both teams have fun. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.