The COVID decline in East Texas: What’s next for Smith County?

Published 5:45 am Wednesday, November 17, 2021

NET Health CEO George Roberts points to a graph indicating that the number of new COVID-19 cases in Smith County is declining during a news conference at the Smith County Commissioners Courtroom in April 2020, April 16, 2020. As downward trends continue, Roberts is encouraged but said high peaks are still possible.

Healthcare officials are encouraged by the progress made in declining COVID-19 cases across East Texas.

Data released Monday shows all seven counties in the Northeast Texas Public Health District are now in in minimal community spread levels of COVID-19 for the first time since the first part of the summer.



“We are very pleased to see that all seven counties are in minimal spread that we work with. That was great news (Monday) to see the trend continue to go down,” NET Health CEO George Roberts said.

This time last year was a different story. Last November, cases were rising to levels not seen since July 2020 and Roberts said health professionals were concerned.

“To start this season with minimal spread is very encouraging,” he said.

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Just two months ago in the week ending Sept. 23, each of the counties had levels of COVID-19 community spread that were substantial — or 35 or more new cases per week adjusted for population. For the first time since June, the counties are all at minimal spreads of the virus.

The district-wide minimal spread level shows progress after Smith County saw 3,321 new cases from March to July this year and then 4,048 cases in August. In September alone, Smith County saw 8,351 new COVID cases, and in October, that number decreased significantly with the county seeing 1,821 total new cases. This month, so far, there have been about 325 new cases in Smith County.

Roberts said the continuing decrease across the region is a result of the population receiving the COVID vaccine along with natural immunity from having contracted the virus.

“You’re seeing the combination of the vaccine and natural occurrence and the other piece, potentially, is the virus kind of burned itself out for periods of time.”

Roberts added, “But that doesn’t mean it won’t go back up again,” as NET Health comprehensive data shows COVID cases have staggered from high peaks to low valleys.

“We’ve seen the COVID cases go up and down within this year and a half time period,” Roberts said. “So, we anticipate we’ll see that increase happen again at some point in time. We just don’t know when.”

As of Oct. 25, hospitals were reporting 90% of patients hospitalized for COVID had not been vaccinated, and close to 100% of those in the ICUs had not been vaccinated, according to data shared at a press conference held at the Majesty Event Center, where NET Health has been offering COVID vaccines and boosters for anyone eligible over the age of 5.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, there have been 36,952 total cases in Smith County. Of those, 20,677 have been confirmed and 16,275 of those were probable. As of Monday, NET Health reported 594 active cases, 305 of those confirmed.

To keep cases from rising as the holiday season approaches, Roberts encourages receiving a COVID-19 vaccine and getting the booster dose when eligible and not to visit family and friends when feeling sick.

“Stay home when you’re sick. Wash your hands a lot around Thanksgiving … If you’re around some people you know haven’t been vaccinated, if you have a concern, you can always wear a face mask,” he said.

Roberts said NET Health is still examining the trends of the pandemic and the public will be notified of any new trends.

Though COVID data trends downward in Northeast Texas, NPR on Tuesday reported COVID cases are again on the rise in the U.S., adding that some hospitals in the West and the upper Midwest are already dealing with an influx of patients. According to NRP, some experts worry these are signs of the beginning of a nationwide surge.