Fantasy: Time to sell Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Peterson
Published 7:55 pm Wednesday, October 18, 2017
- Tyler Paper staff writer Chris Parry (Sarah A. Miller/Tyler Morning Telegraph)
In the classic comedy “Trading Places,” starring Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd, the main antagonists are Randolph and Mortimer Duke, two big-time business guys who own Duke&Duke, a successful commodities brokerage firm in Philadelphia.
What does this have to do with fantasy football?
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In the penultimate scene of the movie, Randolph Duke realizes he and his brother have been duped by Murphy and Aykroyd’s characters and have been purchasing stock that is shrinking in value by the second. They need to sell it quickly and he admonishes his broker to “Get out there and Sell! Sell!”
You need to watch the movie to understand why this is important, but this is exactly what I am suggesting fantasy owners of Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald and Ted Ginn Jr.
Look, I am not saying these three players could not benefit you and your team, but when the stock reaches its peak, it’s time to sell.
And frankly, Peterson, Fitzgerald and Ginn Jr. probably are not going to come close to duplicating what they did last week. Allow me to state my case why.
Case 1: Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals – The Palestine product is 32. Before Sunday, when he torched the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Peterson hadn’t surpassed the century mark in rushing yards since Dec. 27 2015 in a win over the New York Giants. Granted, a season-ending injury cut things short after three games in 2016, but even before that (and I would know because he was my fantasy running back), Peterson had rushed for a combined 70 yards in three games with no touchdowns.
In 2015, his last fully healthy season, Peterson went three games before that 100-yard Giants game as part of seven games overall that he surpassed the century mark. This is important because Peterson is a volume back. He gets better the more times he touches the ball.
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That worked out okay against a clearly unprepared Tampa Bay defense, but I guarantee The Los Angeles Rams are diligently working to try and limit Peterson. This is why you should strike while the iron is hot and deal Peterson to an owner excited about last week’s numbers.
Or, you can wait one more week because the Rams have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards this season. Then definitely move him because his stock will never be higher. You might be able to ask for someone like Julio Jones of Atlanta or Jordan Howard of Chicago.
His stock will never be higher than in these first few weeks, so my advice is to get out there and sell!
Case 2: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals – It was kind of a turn-back-the-clock game for the Cards last week against Tampa Bay. While Peterson surpassed the century mark in rushing, Fitzgerald caught 10 passes for 138 yards and a TD after posing a combined 10 catches for 83 yards in his two previous outings.
Fitzgerald is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, no doubt, but fantasy is about the now. The now is a 34-year old wide out that surpassed 100 yards for only the second time in his last 13 games.
Last year, Fitzgerald surpassed 100 yards once in 16 games, so he is already doing better than that in 2017.
Here’s the rub. His two 100-yard games came against Dallas’ brutal secondary and Tampa Bay, which is allowing the most fantasy points per week in the league to receivers through six games.
His stock is through the roof right now. Maybe ask an owner of Brandin Cooks of New England or Dez Bryant of Dallas if they would be interested in a deal.
Get out there and sell!
Case 3: Ted Ginn Jr., New Orleans – This is the ultimate boom or bust guy, so you always want to try and sell him after the boom.
He caught four passes for 66 yards and a touchdown last week. The four receptions tied his high for the season and the 66 yards is also the most he’s had this year. He’s only surpassed 60 yards receiving six times in his past 23 games.
He also has two touchdowns thus far, but with Willie Snead back from suspension, his targets are going to dry up.
See if you can trade him to an impatient owner still reeling from Golden Tate’s injury, which will keep him out for 3-5 weeks. Or maybe offer him to the owner of Washington’s Josh Doctson, who hasn’t broken out yet but looks to be more of a red zone threat.
Regardless, get out there and sell!
Always be working!
Other players to think about trading right now:
Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams, WRs, Green Bay – This is because of Aaron Rodgers season-ending injury. There is no way these two are going to produce the same with Brett Hundley at QB. See if someone is interested)
Will Fuller, WR, Houston – The Texans receiver has been red hot since coming back from injury, scoring five touchdowns in three games. That is fantastic, but Fuller only has eight catches overall in three games. He’s averaging a TD a game and that is not sustainable. See if an owner might be able to part with a Michael Crabtree or Keenan Allen. Those guys produce receptions and touchdowns.
THESE GUYS WILL PRODUCE IN WEEK 7
(Not the normal must-starts each week, but players who should be able to take advantage of a good matchup. These plays are for point-per-reception leagues). Note: Teams on a bye this week are Houston and Detroit.
Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan, Atlanta at New England: Normally it’s a no-brainer to play Matty Ice anyway, but he has struggled mightily this season (6 TDs in 5 games), but there is hope because the Pats defense has allowed a league-high 14 TDs in 6 games. Prediction: 250 yards, 3 TDs.
Running Backs
Chris Ivory, Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Early word is Leonard Fournette is questionable for this game, but even if he starts, the Jags are going to be cautious with their rookie superstar. That should open the door for Ivory. Prediction: 70 yards, TD.
Jerrick McKinnon, Minnesota vs. Baltimore: The Ravens are traditionally difficult to run against, but this season in six games, Terrell Suggs and Co. have allowed 124 yards rushing per game. McKinnon should have a big night rushing and receiving. Prediction: 100 yards rushing, 47 receiving, TD
Wide Receivers
Zay Jones, Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay: This is a shot in the dark I admit, but Jones is the logical choice to carve up a Bucs secondary that has allowed 8 catches for 1,443 yards so far in 5 games! He has yet to make an impact, but Buffalo had the bye week to prepare for this one and I think Tyrod Taylor is going to look his way. Prediction: 5 catches, 68 yards.
Terrance Williams, Dallas at San Francisco: This needs to be the game for Williams. The 49ers are allowing 1,013 yards through six games, and the majority of that has been receivers. Williams caught one of his 3 TDs against San Francisco last season if that helps my cause. Prediction: 3 catches, 72 yards, TD.
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham, Seattle: He would be a usual plug-and-play every week guy, but thus far has one touchdown in five games. Take away a 7-catch effort against Tennessee and Graham has a combined 14 receptions in the other four games. That is why the Giants are a welcome opponent. New York is allowing a league-worst 14.2 fantasy points per week to tight ends (432 yards, 7 TDs). Prediction: 6 catches, 76 yards, TD
HOW DID LAST WEEK’S PREDICTIONS PAN OUT?
Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee vs. Indianapolis – Prediction: 300 yards passing, 2 TDs. Reality: 306 yards, 1 TD. Really close on this one, but was off on the TDs. Push.
Running Backs
Samaje Perine/Rob Kelley, Washington vs. San Francisco – Prediction: 122 yards combined. Reality: Perine, 9-23 and Kelley did not play. This was a huge miss. Redskins should have torched the 49ers run defense, but struggled.
Jay Ajayi, Miami at Atlanta: Prediction: 6 catches, 44 yards; 82 yards rushing, TD. Reality: No catches but 130 yards rushing. I am calling this one a push too.
Wide Receivers
Jaron Brown, Arizona vs. Tampa Bay – Prediction: 5 catches, 73 yards. Reality: Well, I was right about receivers going off against Tampa Bay, but it was the other Brown, who had 3 catches for 63 yards and a score. Do I get credit for getting the last name right? Miss.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh at Kansas City – Prediction: 3 catches, 47 yards, TD. Reality: 3 catches, 32 yards. Close, but no TD so this one a miss too. Not a good week for my predictions.
Tight Ends
Virgil Green, Denver vs. N.Y. Giants – Prediction: 2 catches, 41 yards, TD. Reality: 1 catch, 24 yards. I need to stop predicting touchdowns for these guys.
George Kittle, San Francisco at Washington – Prediction: 7 catches, 82 yards. Reality: 4 catches, 46 yards. Close. Can I count this as a win for this week?
Good Luck in Week 7!
– Chris Parry is a staff writer for the Tyler Morning Telegraph and has been an avid fantasy football player for decades. His fantasy football column appears each Thursday. To contact him, email to cparry@tylerpaper.com or tweet to @CParryETFS