After three weeks in the NFL, what have we learned? One Manning brother is really good, and the other one is living every play in more danger than your average “Sons of Anarchy” member. Cleveland can still shock us with a quarterback we’ve never heard of, and the Jaguars aren’t even within twenty points of the best team in the league. The Colts are better than we think, and San Francisco is the opposite of that.

Three games in and Pittsburgh, Washington, Minnesota, and the Giants have combined for fewer wins than the Browns. Alex Smith is playing like an All-Pro, and Robert Griffin is playing like he’s dead.

This is the week where we should start to see some teams return to the mean, and the surprising teams to start to make sense again. But then again, what do I know? Remember, I’m the guy who bet my house on the Giants to win last week, and I scored as many points as they did without leaving my couch.

Last week I was 4-4, hitting on the Bengals winning straight up, and being utterly clueless about Cleveland and the Giants. I’m now 10-12 on the season, which puts me in the “mild bodily injury” category.” Here’s my picks for this week, remember, these are for the purposes of discussion only. As always, no wagering.

San Francisco (-3.5) at St. Louis: The Rams performance against the Cowboys last week was so bad, Jerry Jones almost bought them at halftime. Pick: Niners.

Cincinnati (-4.5) at Cleveland: I have a lot in common with Andy Dalton. We’re both redheads, we both live in Cincinnati, and we’ve both spent all week looking at game film trying to figure out how the Browns won last week. Pick: Bengals.

Washington (-3.5) at Oakland: If the 0-3 Redskins play any worse, they may get local picketers asking them to take “Washington” out of their name, too. Pick: Redskins.

NY Giants (+5) at Kansas City: Last year’s longtime NFC East coach who got run out of town gets to host this year’s prime candidate. Pick: Giants.

New England (+2.5) at Atlanta: This is the first test for the 3-0 Patriots against competition that does not, as we say in Vegas, suck. Pick: Pats.

Indianapolis (-9.5) at Jacksonville: After the Trent Richardson trade, the Colts have their quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end of the future all under contract. The Jaguars can’t even get helmets right. Pick: Colts.

I’ll also take the Cardinals straight up to beat the Bucs, the Minnesota-Pittsburgh game to go under 42.5 points, and someone in your fantasy league to forget that the Packers and the Panthers have a bye this week.

— Reid Kerr talks a lot, as his wife always reminds him. Follow Reid on the web at ReidAboutIt.com.