Fantasy: When is Adrian Peterson not your No. 1 pick?
Published 8:25 pm Wednesday, July 31, 2013
- Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson walks on the field during NFL football training camp, Monday, July 29, 2013, in Mankato, Minn. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Fantasy football players right now are scouring any and all information (including this column) they can to prepare for their upcoming drafts.
Many “experts” are saying the same thing in most, if not all, preview draft pieces: take a running back with your first pick and, in some instances, with your second pick.
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That is a sound strategy. There is no denying that.
And there is also no debate on who the top running back in this year’s fantasy draft will be.
Question: Who nearly broke Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record last year and led this owner to the championship game in his fantasy league?
Answer: Adrian Peterson. The Palestine native was unstoppable, defying logic by coming off a torn ACL to rush for 2,097 yards and 12 touchdowns. In the league I play in, Dereliction, that accounted for 415 points. That was the third highest of any player in our league.
So, if you are lucky enough to get the No. 1 pick in your fantasy league — it has to be Peterson, right?
I’d say 99 times out of 100, that would be right, but there is that one instance where it is not a good move.
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Two-quarterback fantasy leagues are all the rage right now. Another variation is leagues where a second quarterback can be used in a flex spot.
If that is the case, I strongly recommend taking a quarterback with your first pick — no matter where it is.
This is why:
Quarterbacks provide the most points of any position player in fantasy. Peterson’s 2012 season was the exception, not the rule, as far as running back fantasy production.
Just look at last year. The No. 1 running back entering drafts last year was Arian Foster, who ended up with great numbers — 1,424 yards and 15 TDs — that accounted for 269 points.
Sixteen quarterbacks produced more points than that. As for running backs, take away Petersons’ incredible season and the next highest RB, Marshawn Lynch, finished with 284 points.
Thirteen quarterbacks scored more points than Lynch. Some of those names are ones you might not expect: Andy Dalton, Josh Freeman, Russell Wilson.
Get the point?
So, returning back to your two-QB league draft, let’s say you do take Peterson with pick No. 1 in your 12-team league. In a snake format, your next choice will be the last one of the second round, pick No. 24.
Let’s say six owners are like you and take a running back with either their first or second picks. If you now take a QB with your second- and third-round draft picks, you are potentially looking at Joe Flacco and Matt Schaub.
Put that into perspective using last year’s season-ending stats. Peterson, Flacco and Schaub combined for 949 points.
Keep in mind this was using Peterson’s 2012 numbers, which were nearly historic.
Now look at your point total if you take Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees with the first pick in your draft.
You pick again at No. 24, but only six running backs are off the board as others teams have also loaded up on quarterbacks for the two-QB league. Again, you take Joe Flacco and settle for C.J. Spiller, who is listed as No. 7 in some of the rankings lists I’ve looked at.
Again, using 2012 season stats, you combine Brees, Flacco and Spiller and now you get 986 points. Thirty-seven points, but that could be the difference between a playoff spot or not.
Even with Peterson’s near NFL record-breaking season stats, it still does not add up to what you get with two QBs first before a running back.
To make my point even more, let’s use last year’s first overall pick in most drafts, Foster.
You take Foster, Flacco and Schaub and it equals 804 points.
The defense rests.
As leagues begin to draft, owners shouldn’t get caught up in one certain strategy just because others have told you it’s the way to do it. Think about what kind of league you are in.
Is it a PPR (point-per-reception) league?
In that case, receivers and running backs who catch out of the backfield are very valuable. In standard leagues, running backs are the way to go.
In two-QB leagues or those where a QB can be used as a flex — see above.
Question: I am in a keeper league where we can keep two players and not pick in the first two rounds. I am trying to decide between Jamaal Charles, Dez Bryant, Drew Brees and Doug Martin.
CP: Wow! I wonder if you are your league’s defending champion with that lineup. The smart money is on Charles and Martin. You don’t pick the first two rounds and take, for example, the 13th best quarterback in the third round. That is likely Carson Palmer or Phillip Rivers, who are still going to produce big numbers.
Question: I am picking in the 12th spot in my 12-team PPR league. Should I think about taking Dez Bryant and Tom Brady with my pick?
CP: Tough because it is real tempting to grab a top-flight WR/QB with your back-to-back picks, especially in a PPR league. But I would advise against this. You have to have at least one RB in your first two picks and this is why. Because you will be scraping the bottom of the barrel with available RBs like Giovani Bernard, Chris Ivory or Shane Vereen all that is left by the time your third-round pick arrives. Those guys aren’t horrible as an RB2, but not as your RB1. I’d advise maybe grabbing Bryant and Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy or maybe Chicago Bears’ Matt Forte, who are projected to put up solid RB numbers.
Chris Parry began playing fantasy football in college in 1996 and he has won numerous titles in both fantasy football and baseball. His column appears each Thursday on Page Two. Feel free to email lineup questions or comments to cparry@tylerpaper.com, tweet to @CParryETFS on Twitter or post on the ETFinalscore.com Facebook page.