Reid Kerr

This week’s lesson?There are no sure things in the NFL.

On a related note, this is why casinos aren’t built in abandoned Walmarts, but I get ahead of myself. Every week we talk about the games, and what Vegas thinks the difference between the two teams is in terms of points. And as we’ve learned, they’re really good at it. They had the Cowboys as 5.5 point favorites last night, they won by five. Which means that when I watched that last minute missed field goal by Dallas, I reacted like someone had shot a harpoon through my soul.

All NFL teams can be good or bad in any given week. Last week, the two teams I had pegged as the worst in the league both won. This is not like college, where the Chiefs would be playing against Topeka and favored by 40.

It’s not just the games, either. When I watch college football and NFL Draft coverage, I’m amused by anyone who calls a player a “can’t miss prospect.” I wonder if that kind of pointless, shotgun-spread optimism carries over into their regular lives as well.

“I think this audit is going really well!”

“I’m sure my wife will get great results from taking that vacation with her personal trainer.”

“Thanks for the paycheck, radio station! I know this one will cash!”

Ok, maybe that last one was just me. But still, no player, regardless of pedigree, is guaranteed success in the league. There’s so much involved with a successful career that has nothing to do with the actual player or ability. Patrick Mahomes may go down as the greatest quarterback in the history of mankind by the time he’s through, but you have to admit his career was helped by going to a stable team with a great coaching staff in Kansas City. You know, as opposed to going somewhere that rhymes with “Schmarolina.”

Justin Fields seemed clueless in Chicago, and is undefeated under Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh. Trevor Lawrence was ranked so highly at Clemson he would have been the top draft pick if he could have turned pro after his freshman year. Now he’s winless with a quarterback rating right around room temperature. And two different teams spent first-round draft picks on Trent Richardson, and he played for five teams in four leagues in three different countries, and wasn’t good in any of them.

Honestly, Cowboys fans have been spoiled by their quarterback luck since the last time Troy Aikman was dragged off the field. Although admittedly not in that next five years where literally anyone with a pulse got to start for the Cowboys. (Quincy Carter! Ryan Leaf! New York Yankee Drew Henson! A 73-year-old Vinny Testaverde!) Getting almost 20 years of productive play out of undrafted Tony Romo and fourth-rounder Dak Prescott is a mathematical anomaly that should be celebrated.

It’s not, of course. But eh, Cowboys fans and their unrealistic expectations are half of the fun of covering the NFL.

Time for my week four picks. Counting the Thursday game, Last week I went 4-3, and a resoundingly awful 1-6 against the Vegas point spreads. In my defense, last week was so unexpected, it felt like it was directed by M. Night Shyamalan. Lesson learned there. On the season, I’m now 10-11 and 7-14 against Vegas. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Jacksonville (+6) at Houston: Trevor Lawrence has turned into Blake Bortles, but with better hair.

Pick: Texans to win and cover, winning by seven or more.

Minnesota (+3) at Green Bay: The Vikings are exhibit A for why you should never attempt to wager on professional football. Which is still lucky for me, because that drops me down to exhibit B, at worst.

Pick: Vikings to win it outright.

New Orleans (+2.5) at Atlanta: I’m not sure of anything in the NFC South right now. I wouldn’t place an actual wager on anything in this division, from wins and losses to whether or not one team would be composed of mammals.

Pick: Falcons to win and cover, winning by three or more points.

LA Rams (+3) at Chicago: My prediction? Someone is going to win this game and feel a lot better about their team than they probably should for a week.

Pick: Rams to win it outright.

Cincinnati (-4.5) at Carolina: Andy Dalton may have saved his career and ended Bryce Young’s at the same time.

Pick: The Bengals have to win one eventually, right? I’ll take them to win and cover, winning by five points or more.

New England (+10.5) at San Francisco: The 49ers? “Everything is fine, just taking precautions with Christian McCaffery.” Also the 49ers? “McCaffery has gone to Germany mid-season to get a Kryptonian blood transfusion.”

Pick: 49ers to win but not cover, winning by 10 points or fewer.

I’ll also take the Eagles over the Bucs, Steelers over the Colts, and the Giants to kill Malik Nabers if they keep throwing him the ball that much over the middle. Good luck, everybody.

Reid Kerr saw Extreme and Living Colour in concert this week, and couldn’t have felt more like he was in 1989 if he’d showed up wearing Body Glove pants and a Hypercolor shirt. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.