Reid Kerr

Happy post-Thanksgiving weekend, everybody. This is the longest, weirdest time of the year. By the time you read this, we will have already had what feels like four consecutive Saturdays. And when we get to work on Monday, we’ll be so confused next week will feel like 10 days.

Remember, dear readers, this time of year everything costs twice as much and takes three times as long to get there. Everyone is in the same overstressed situation. Just sing Christmas carols under your breath and stay patient. There’s nothing to be gained from losing it and punching a department store Santa in anger. And besides, those guys are naturally hefty, or they’re wearing padding. Either way, they’re not an easy out, so watch it.

As for me, I’ll be watching the next month of football very carefully. We’ve reached the point in the season where you’re not just looking at the standings, you’re looking ahead to schedules to try and see who’s got the easiest path to the playoffs. I still think its Dallas and Philly Christmas Eve night for the division title. And in the AFC, looks like the road goes through Kansas City again.

But are the Giants or Commanders for real? Are the Packers really done? Will the entire AFC East make the playoffs? Can anything stand between the Texans and their march to the first draft pick? Will Denver fire their coach and for crying out loud, why not? Will Deshaun Watson make a difference for the Browns, or will karma prevail? Is this the year Tom Brady misses the playoffs and grouses off into the sunset?

We’ll know the answer to most of these questions by New Year’s Day. And I can’t wait.

Now on to the picks. On Thanksgiving, I was a perfect 3-0 both straight up and against the Vegas spread. I guess eating that many carbs makes me clairvoyant, somehow. I’m now 40-29, and 31-36-2 against Vegas. As always, my picks are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Houston (+14) at Miami: The Texans switching quarterbacks at this point is like changing the oil on a car sitting in your back yard that’s up on blocks, rusted out, and full of bees.

Pick: Dolphins to win and cover, winning by 15 or more.

Chicago (+6) at NY Jets: The Jets benched quarterback Zach Wilson this week, and the point spread on this game didn’t move. That means regardless of what Jets management thinks about him, the guys in Vegas don’t think he makes a bit of difference.

Pick: Bears to win it outright.

LA Rams (+15.5) at Kansas City: A defending Super Bowl champion is a fifteen-and-a-half point underdog. The Rams have fallen apart like my annual plans to exercise.

Pick: Chiefs to win but not cover, winning by 15 or fewer.

LA Chargers (-3) at Arizona: Nice of the Cardinals to start their annual second half collapse early, and beat the Christmas rush.

Pick: Chargers to win and cover, winning by four or more.

Tampa Bay (-3) at Cleveland: I look forward to one day explaining to my grandkids that I saw the start of Tom Brady’s career, and how he wound up the 60-year-old starting quarterback for the expansion San Diego Sharks.

Pick: Bucs to win and cover, winning by four or more.

Denver (-1) at Carolina: This game will be a slugfest. And by that I mean it’ll be about as interesting as watching a festival of slugs.

Pick: Panthers to win it outright.

I’ll also take the Titans over the Bengals, Falcons over the Commanders, and package delivery over having to leave my house for the next month. Good luck, everybody.