Reid Kerr

Merry Christmas and happy holidays to all, dear readers. Hopefully by the time you read this column, you’ll be safe and sound with friends and family, enjoying Christmas. And since there are NFL games on the holiday, you’ll probably be talking football while cleaning up the post-present opening carnage.

To help out with the holiday conversations, I’m including a couple of general sports topics that will probably come up, and helpful tips to win those inevitable arguments. Merry Christmas, and you’re welcome.

The Conversation Starter: The Chiefs are just lucky!

No. Agree with your insistent relative (and probable fan of another AFC team) that yes, it sure does seem like the Chiefs have been lucky this year, but point out that’s because they’re a very good, extremely well-coached team. They’re getting the breaks in the final minute with forced turnovers and missed field goals because their defense is putting other teams in those positions. And offensively, they can close out a game with a six-minute drive better than anyone else in the league right now. Luck is simply what happens when preparation meets opportunity, and they hang out with Patrick Mahomes.

Your Closing Statement: “Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, Uncle Shemp, and the Chiefs are both.”

The Starter: The Cowboys will never win a Super Bowl as long as Jerry Jones owns the team!

Admittedly, you may want to go ahead and punt on this one and get back to eating stuffing and watching the parade. But if you must, point out how many other teams haven’t had playoff success since 1996 either. Remind your friend part of the reason everyone is excited for the Bills and Lions this season is because they’ve been rancid roadkill for pretty much their entire existence, and neither team even has a Lombardi in the trophy case to fall back on. If they talk about Dak not being a great quarterback, admit he’s not top tier, but go into great detail how badly it usually goes when teams have to reach for a new quarterback, and mention names like Trey Lance or Deshaun Watson.

Your Closer: I don’t know how to really win this one, but I’d suggest you keep mentioning the Cleveland Browns a lot, for purposes of comparison.

The Starter: The College Football Playoff isn’t working!

Start by admitting the first round was pretty much a beating. That will throw them off and make your point land even harder, when you remind them it’s college football, and games aren’t usually close. We tend to romanticize the good ones like we’ve had for the last two years, but realistically, it’s more often than not a blowout. When they pooh-pooh your argument, remind them in the last six years of playoffs, the average first round win is by more than 16 points. When they’re reeling from that, land the knockout punch by telling them the last six championship games have been decided on average by almost four touchdowns.

Your Closer: “Come on, Aunt Bearbryant, I know you’re upset about the playoffs but we haven’t had a competitive national championship game since 2018.”

The Starter: Eli Manning isn’t a Hall of Famer!

Admit his overall winning percentage is just .500, and he led the league in picks three times, just to get that out of the way. Then remind everyone he not only won two Super Bowls, but beat Tom Brady in both of them, including stopping the unbeaten 2007 Patriots. He has a low-key personality, especially for the New York market, which didn’t help the perception of him. He had moments where he was admittedly bad, but the Giants didn’t always put a decent team around him, especially for his last few years. He had 42 game-winning drives in his career, but Eli’s bottom line is two Super Bowl MVPs.

Your Closer: “Uncle Bocephus, you’re going to tell me that two Super Bowl wins, much less two MVP trophies isn’t enough to get Eli in, when the Hall is full of quarterbacks who didn’t even get to one?”

Time for my early week 17 picks. I went 4-2 last week, and the same against Vegas. On the season, I’m now 67-36 and 47-56 against Vegas.

For the early games, give me the Chiefs (-2.5) to win by three or more points over Pittsburgh, the Ravens (-5) to beat the Texans by six or more points, and for the Thursday game, Seattle (-3.5) to win by four points or more over the Bears. Good luck, everybody.