Reid Kerr

People spent Monday debating on the Sunday night game, and asking the obvious question. Are the Cowboys that good, or are the Giants just that bad?

Whoa, slow down there, Chester. It can easily be both.

That’s what we do as football fans. We’re so starved for real games that after one week, we’ve got it all figured it out. The Cowboys are heading to the Super Bowl, the Giants are the worst team in the league, the Bengals and Bills are overrated, and the Lions are the team to beat in the NFC.

Maybe some of these are true, probably not. But the only thing harder than making predictions before the first game is making them with only one game in the books. We still don’t know anything. Maybe the Giants aren’t that bad, and they accidentally put Daniel Jones’ locker on top of an ancient burial ground of some sort. Only time will tell.

One game is far too small of a sample size. The Cleveland Browns got their first week one home opener win since “Desperate Housewives” was on the air, are we going to suddenly embrace them as a playoff team? Or are we going to continue to feel very uncomfortable every time the broadcast team mentions Deshaun Watson?

Spoiler alert, it’s definitely going to be that latter thing. It will be creepy from now until his career is over, whether that ends in the Hall of Fame or a maximum security penitentiary somewhere.

Every week there’s a couple of weird games, but in the first week we don’t know what’s an outlier and what is actual evidence of change. The Bears beat the 49ers in week one last season, and that didn’t change the expectations for either team. San Francisco was still in the NFC Championship game, and the Bears were still in the toilet.

Another two weeks, and we’ll know better what to expect. And then, armed with that knowledge, my picks will be bad, but at least they’ll be bad for a good reason.

Time for my Week Two picks. In week one I dropped the opener, then I went 4-2 and 5-1 against the Vegas point spreads on the Sunday games. In my defense, I forgot what happens when I get too hopeful for my beloved Bills. Lesson learned there. I’m now 4-3 and 5-2 against Vegas overall. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

NY Jets (+9) at Dallas: The Aaron Rodgers era in New York lasted about as long as my attention span whenever I see an internet video that says “Watch ‘till the end!”

Pick: Cowboys to win and cover, which means I think they win by 10 or more points.

Indianapolis (+1) at Houston: C.J. Stroud completing his first NFL pass to himself is the most Texan-y of all the Texans things I’ve ever seen.

Pick: Colts to win and cover, winning by two or more.

Kansas City (-3.5) at Jacksonville: After that opening night performance, Patrick Mahomes spent the last week practicing throwing the ball so hard it wedges into the facemasks of his receivers, so they won’t be able to drop it.

Pick: Chiefs to win but not cover, winning by three or fewer.

Chicago (+2.5) at Tampa Bay: There’s no quarterback who plays better when he’s underestimated than Baker Mayfield. Unfortunately, that quickly leads to him being reevaluated and overestimated, and then the cycle begins again.

Pick: Bears to win it outright.

Baltimore (+3) at Cincinnati: After last week’s loss, Joe Burrow got a haircut. I imagine next week he may take up an interest in boating, to further lay the groundwork for an eventual “Sleeping With The Enemy” style disappearance.

Pick: Ravens to win it outright.

I’ll also takethe 49ers over the Rams, the Giants over the Cardinals, and “Frasier” over the reboot, sight unseen. Good luck, everybody.

Reid Kerr experienced a weird sense of melancholy hearing a Smash Mouth song last week, which he was not ready for in any way, shape, or form. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.