Reid Kerr

As we go into the final week of the NFL regular season, some games are crucial, while others are the kind where guys already have their lockers cleaned out by pregame warmups. Before I dive head-first into my playoff predictions, this seems like a good time to look back on what I already got right and wrong this season.

Wrong: I had Dallas as a playoff team.

Right: Eh, I figured Cowboys fans would be complaining and calling for Mike McCarthy’s head either way. Bull’s eye on that one.

Right: I picked the Eagles to win the division.

Wrong: Washington making the playoffs wasn’t even on my “Insane Things That Might Happen” bingo card.

Right: I thought the Giants would regret letting Saquon Barkley go.

Wrong: I didn’t think the Giants would regret every single moment of the season, or at least the ones that didn’t involve Malik Nabers.

Right: I said Christian McCaffery wouldn’t lead the league in rushing.

Wrong: I foolishly thought CMC would still beat my NFL rushing totals by more than 202 yards.

Right: I knew the Jets wouldn’t be a playoff team.

Wrong: I underestimated my underestimation of them. Hoo-boy, that was a bad season.

Right: I picked Houston to win the AFC South.

Wrong: I thought it would be because they were a good team, and not just because the other three teams were, as usual, fetid bags of refuse. The Texans have had to overcome a lot this year and they’re still set for the future, but I have zero confidence in them in this year’s playoffs.

Right: I didn’t expect much from the Saints.

Wrong: I shouldn’t have expected that much, as little as it was. The Saints aren’t a rebuild like one of those TV shows where they fix everything in an hour. They’re going to require some dynamite and hard hat-style demolitions before they can start over.

Right: I picked the Chiefs to win their division.

Wrong: I didn’t specifically mention they’d do so by winning by half of a point in the last ten seconds of every game.

Wrong: I thought the Bears would be better.

Right: I still think the Bears have their best quarterback since the last time they dragged Jim McMahon off the field.

Right: I thought it was a great move for the Falcons to draft Michael Penix Jr. even though they had signed Kirk Cousins.

Wrong: I didn’t expect him to start this year because I totally forgot what happens when you rely on Kirk Cousins.

Wrong: I thought Derrick Henry was on the down side of his career.

Even More Wrong: I thought Sam Darnold didn’t even have a career.

Right: I didn’t think the Bengals would make the playoffs.

Wrong: I didn’t think Joe Burrow would ascend to the level of “MVP Candidate, Even Though He’s Playing With A Junior High Defense.”

Time for my week 18 picks. Last week I went 4-2, and 3-3 against the Vegas point spreads. In my defense, that Giants win was as disappointing to me as it was to Giants fans. Lesson learned there. On the season, I’m now 62-35 and 44-53 against Vegas, which means I’ll finish under .500 for the regular season, and I may have to spend a few months living under an assumed name. Here’s my picks. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Washington (-6) at Dallas: The Cowboys releasing Ezekiel Elliott so he can join a playoff bound team is a little like my wife leaving me so I can marry Angelina Jolie. I don’t like those odds.

Pick: Commanders to win and cover, winning by seven or more points.

Houston (+1.5) at Tennessee: The Texans backups against the Titans starters. This one may be the stoppable force against the movable object.

Pick: Texans to win and cover, winning by two or more points.

Cincinnati (-2) at Pittsburgh: Coming into this game, the Bengals have a 6% chance of making the playoffs. Which, coincidentally, is the same chance they have of stopping anyone defensively.

Pick: Bengals to win and cover, winning by three or more points.

Kansas City (+10.5) at Denver: This point spread seems a bit off, but remember the Chiefs will almost certainly be fielding a team of backups, or possibly Taylor Swift backup dancers.

Pick: Broncos to win but not cover, winning by ten or fewer points.

New Orleans (+14) at Tampa Bay: This is an easy one on paper for the Bucs. Probably also on the field.

Pick: Bucs to win and cover, winning by 15bor more points.

Minnesota (+2.5) at Detroit: This is the kind of game the NFL dreams about for the final game of the regular season. The only way this could be a better evening for the league is if at halftime, Tom Brady announces he’s buying the Dallas Cowboys.

Pick: Lions to win but not cover, winning by two or fewer points.

I’ll also take the Ravens over the Browns, Bills over the Patriots, and Ohio State and Notre Dame to play for the championship. Good luck, everybody.