Reid Kerr

Well, I always say that the NFL season doesn’t really get started until someone fires a coach at one a.m. on a Friday. So here we go, I guess.

This week, in terms of predictions, I’d like to just start with a simple hypothesis.

We know nothing.

Normally by the halfway point of an NFL season, we have a surprise team, a couple of disappointments, and a team everyone is chasing. Right now, I don’t know who the favorite would be.

The Super Bowl champion Chiefs started the season as the team to beat, then immediately lost to the Lions. That left a void at the top of the league the Eagles filled, but they weren’t consistent in their winning. Dallas looked like the best team in the league by week four even with a slip-up against Arizona, then they got absolutely destroyed by the 49ers.

San Francisco was clearly the most dominant team at that point, so the 49ers promptly lost their next three. Miami was outrunning people all over the field, then got shredded by Buffalo, who can’t string two weeks of good football together. Then Miami was good again, but got beaten by Philly, who dropped one to the Jets somehow.

With everyone else having a flaw, that made the Chiefs once again the best team. They celebrated last week by losing to the Broncos for the first time since Patrick Mahomes was a fetus.

So now the best team is … the Eagles again? Jags? Are the Cowboys back in there? Is it time for the Lions to take their turn, or are we sold on the Ravens finally? Does anyone want to play the Bengals right now?

I don’t know. I wish I did, but every time I put my stamp of approval on a team they immediately turn into the second coming of the 1976 Buccaneers. This is a season where I can make a legitimate case for at least 10 teams as being Super Bowl contenders. It’s great for the league, and also for my wagering concierge Formerly Fat Tony, who has already purchased a new boat with my losings from this season.

All I know is that from here on in, when I’m making predictions I’m looking very carefully at schedules, and paying a lot of attention to injuries. Down the stretch those are the unobvious things that mean a lot when the playing field is so even.

Time for my week nine picks. Last week, I went 4-2, and a hilariously palindromic 2-2-2 against the Vegas spread. In my defense, picking Carolina to lose has seemed like a good strategy for years now, and I doubt last week is going to change that for me. Lesson learned there. I’m now 28-21 on the season, and 25-21-3 against Vegas overall. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Dallas (+3) at Philadelphia: Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said he wants to “confuse” Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott in this matchup. Look for safeties to blitz while yelling algebra problems at Dak.

Pick: Eagles to win and cover, winning by four or more points.

Miami (+1.5) vs. Kansas City (in Frankfurt): Reminder, this game is in Germany and starts early in the morning. My dad is a minister, so I told him we could make some extra cash by selling “get-out-of-church” notes to stay home and watch this one. Pop said that wouldn’t be right, but he would consider working scoring updates into his sermon.

Pick: Chiefs to win and cover, winning by two or more points.

NY Giants (+2) at Las Vegas: I saw a commercial for a law firm that began with “Did you watch that Jets-Giants game last weekend? You may be entitled to compensation …”

Pick: Raiders to win and cover, winning by three or more. I always take a team that just fired their coach to bounce back, especially against New York teams.

Buffalo (+2) at Cincinnati: I think we’re all just hoping for a nice quiet game here, aren’t we?

Pick: Bengals to win and cover, winning by three or more.

Arizona (+7.5) at Cleveland: I’m referring to this is the “Teams That Won’t Admit They’re Angry At The Deals They Gave Their Quarterbacks Bowl.” I think it’s accurate, although I’ll admit it’s a bit wordy for the on-screen graphics.

Pick: Browns to win but not cover, winning by seven or fewer.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at NY Jets: Another generation of Chargers with a great quarterback and disappointing results. Justin Hebert is just Philip Rivers with better hair and fewer kids.

Pick: Jets to win it outright.

I’ll also take the Texans over the Bucs, Ravens over the Seahawks, and old Beatles songs over new ones. Good luck, everybody.

Reid Kerr turned his porch lights off Tuesday at 6 p.m., and is enjoying the Halloween candy all the way to Thanksgiving. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.