Reid Kerr

Of course, Tom also sang that he had slept in your treehouse, and his middle name was Earl. They aren’t all philosophical gems.

The late Pete Rozelle’s NFL dream was of a form of parity, where every team would stay competitive as long as possible during the season. The field was leveled through things like free agency, the salary cap, and the Dallas drafts of the late 90’s, which were atrocious.

In the NFL, every team and their fanbase has a Super Bowl dream at the start of the season, even the ones that really shouldn’t. Look at franchises that are traditionally … well, we’ll refer to them as “stinko.” Even the stinko teams still stumble into the playoffs about every four or five years. When you get a team like the Jets who haven’t made the postseason since the first time Avatar was in theatres? A commitment to sub-mediocrity like that really means something.

Can a bad team flip the script? Absolutely. Look at the Houston Texans. They were the worst franchise in the league for years with bad coaching, a horrible front office, and leadership that drove off their three star players. They cleaned house, had a great draft, and look like they’re going to be competitive for the next generation. The Broncos had three straight fourth-place finishes and what looked like an awful trade for Russell Wilson last year. Change out the coaching staff, and they’re riding a five-game winning streak and thinking about the playoffs.

For the teams on the bottom, it’s not that far back to the top. Or at least the middle, where they can play for a wild card, or maybe take the top of a bad division like the Lions are doing.

So if your team is struggling, don’t give up hope. In the modern NFL, you’re just a coach and a quarterback away from reversing your fortunes completely. The Bears are bad but will have a ton of options. Arizona has lots of questions, but they’ll have some serious draft capital next year. And Carolina?

Well, Carolina has the worst job opening for a head coach I’ve ever seen. They’ve got a disappointing first-pick for a quarterback, a roster devoid of talent, no first round pick next year, and an owner who has gotten rid of seven head coaches across three sports over the last five years.

Can they turn it around? Theoretically. But even though I’m betting the next coach won’t fix things, the one after that might have a better shot. Hope springs eternal.

Time for my picks. Over the last week, I went 5-2 but just 2-5 against the Vegas spread. In my defense, I was under the influence of a lot of gravy last week. Lesson learned there. I’m now 46-28 on the season, and 38-32-3 against Vegas overall. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Denver (+3.5) at Houston: The Broncos are tied with the Eagles for the longest winning streak in the NFL right now. Every time I try and type that sentence in my word processor, the little paper clip pops up and says “Looks like you’re trying to write drunk again! Log off and go have some coffee and a nap.”

Pick: Texans to win but not cover, winning by three or fewer points.

LA Chargers (-5.5) at New England: I found Tom Brady’s recent comments about how bad the NFL is hilarious, especially since for the vast majority of his career he feasted on the worst division imaginable. Brady’s numbers might not have been so good if the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins had been able to get through the coin flip without giving up a touchdown.

Pick: Chargers to win and cover, winning by six points or more.

Detroit (-4.5) at New Orleans: Former Lions quarterback Scott Mitchell is upset about how he was portrayed in the Barry Sanders documentary. In a related note, I’m upset that I have to think about Scott Mitchell again. The dude was a human cheeseburger.

Pick: Lions to win and cover, winning by five or more.

Arizona (+5.5) at Pittsburgh: I’ve got the Steelers as a playoff team right now because my rule for the AFC North is “Any team with a healthy starting quarterback is in.”

Pick: Cardinals to win it outright in the upset.

Carolina (+5) at Tampa Bay: I always pick a team who has just fired their head coach to get a bounce-back win in their next game. However, when a team fires everyone involved with the offense and hands the reins to a Special Teams Coordinator, I assume no one cares any more.

Pick: Bucs to win and cover, winning by six or more points.

Atlanta (-2) at NY Jets: When the only thing anyone wants to talk about regarding your team is whether a 40-year-old quarterback who was healthy for about 45 seconds is going to play again for you when you’re 4-10, you’ve got problems.

Pick: Falcons to win and cover, winning by three or more points.

I’ll also take the Jags over the Bengals, Chiefs over the Packers, and shopping online over having to wear pants. Good luck, everybody.

Reid Kerr’s favorite Christmas movie is “Lethal Weapon.” You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.