5 factors and a prediction for title game

Published 5:09 pm Sunday, April 6, 2025

Tribune News Service

Five factors that could decide Monday night’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament championship game between Florida and Houston — scheduled for 7:50 p.m. on CBS.

1. Florida offense vs. Houston defense

“We’re an elite offensive team and a top-10 defensive team,” Florida coach Todd Golden said on Sunday. “They’re a top-10 offensive team and an elite defensive team.”

Indeed, Florida ranks No. 2 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency rankings. The Gators want to play fast. They rank 42nd in average possession length and 59th in adjusted tempo.

Houston is No. 2 in KenPom’s defensive rankings. The Cougars would like a slightly slower pace. They rank 350th in average possession length and 360th in adjusted tempo.

The Cougars suffocated Duke down the stretch, holding the Blue Devils to one field goal over the final 10:31.

Another stat: Teams that have shot less than 40% are 4-30 in this NCAA Tournament. Houston is responsible for two of the four wins. Tells you something about the Cougars’ defense.

2. Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr.

Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. has been the MVP of this NCAA Tournament so far. Clayton scored 34 points in Florida’s 79-73 win against Auburn on Saturday, which followed a 30-point performance in the Gators’ victory over Texas Tech in the West Regional final.

In five NCAA Tournament games, Clayton has scored 123 points for an average of 26.0 per game. And Saturday night, he hit big shot after big shot down the stretch to lead the Gators to their first national championship game since 2007.

3. Houston’s L.J. Cryer

Houston senior guard L.J. Cryer was a lightly used freshman at Baylor when the Bears won the national title in 2021. In fact, Cryer said Saturday that Baylor coach Scott Drew used to tease the 6-foot-1 guard that he didn’t really deserve that championship ring.

If Houston wins, Cryer will deserve it this time. After a 30-point performance against Gonzaga, he scored 26 in the win against Duke. “He kept us in touch,” said Houston coach Kelvin Sampson, who described the guard as “a basket-getter. He’s a little guy who knows how to score.”

4. Rebounding

Golden put it bluntly Sunday when he said, “Rebounding is going to be big in this game.”

Florida ranks fifth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Houston ranks 10th nationally in that statistic.

Florida outrebounded Auburn by 10 in the second half on Saturday when the Gators rallied from a 46-38 halftime deficit. Houston grabbed 18 offensive rebounds compared to Duke’s 21 defensive rebounds (46.2 ORP) while rallying from a 34-28 halftime deficit.

“We’re not a first-shot team,” Houston forward J’Wan Roberts said on Sunday. “We’re a second- and third-shot team.”

5. Coaching experience

Florida’s 39-year-old Golden is in his sixth season as a head coach and his first Final Four. This isn’t Sampson’s first rodeo. This Houston team is the third that the 69-year-old Sampson has taken to the Final Four, following Maryland in 2002 and Houston in 2021.

“You’ve been in those situations so many times,” Sampson said. “It doesn’t always work out.”

It did, causing Sampson to receive texts from the likes of Tubby Smith, Rick Barnes, Tom Izzo and others telling him to “win one for the old guys.”

Prediction

Houston 72, Florida 69.