Reid Kerr

Let’s talk about windows.

Not the ones on your house currently adorned with Christmas decorations, nor the kind of operating system we used to have to install ourselves on 20 floppy disks just so we could play Minesweeper.

Note to anyone under the age of 40: Never mind, it would take too long to explain that last sentence. The early 90’s were a glorious time, I’ll tell you.

I’m talking about championship windows, and how quickly they can close in the NFL. We’re watching it happen right now.

Take Dallas, they’ve had two separate dynasties with pretty distinctive ending points. For the Landry-led team, the January 1982 NFC Championship loss to San Francisco by “The Catch” ended their dynasty and started a new one. The era of the triplets came to a crushing end with that 1996 season and the divisional upset by Carolina, and they’ve famously never won a divisional playoff since, and very few other postseason games.

Sorry to bring that up, Cowboys fans, but trust me, I’ve spent my lifetime talking about those eras with you, I knew you’d know exactly what I meant when I talked about windows closing.

Look at the last couple of years’ worth of Super Bowl teams, discounting Kansas City, who is an uncanny combination of great and lucky. San Francisco’s last five years have seen four 10-win playoff appearances and two Super Bowl spots, but man, that window slammed shut quickly. They got lucky with a last-round quarterback and a healthy run, but the bills are finally coming due in this wasted season.

Compare that to Cincinnati, which seems to be the only team in the AFC that can beat Kansas City on a regular basis. With a good quarterback you always have a puncher’s chance, and Burrow is not good, he’s great. But the Bengals have never been a team to, you know, spend any money they don’t have to, so he’s leading your fantasy team to victories while the team squanders an MVP-level season.

Being good one year is relatively easy. Hey, even the Jaguars made a championship game once. But can you reload? Do you have a front office willing to make the deals and the hard decisions to churn the roster?

It happens to everybody. The Seattle “Legion of Boom” years were exciting, but crashed down after the last play of the Super Bowl loss to the Patriots, who had the longest window of all time. But still, everything changes eventually, so appreciate what you have as a fan while you can.

Time for my week 14 picks. Last week counting the Friday game, I went 6-1, and 4-3 against the Vegas point spreads. In my defense,I think we’re all amazed at how amazingly bad the Bengals defense can be at a moment’s notice. Lesson learned there. On the season, I’m now 55-30 and 39-46 against Vegas. Here’s my picks. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Cincinnati (-5) at Dallas: Hey, remember when Carson Palmer got so frustrated in Cincinnati he just retired in the middle of his career because he couldn’t stand to play for the Bengals front office any more? Just asking, no reason.

Pick: Cowboys to win it outright.

NY Jets (+5.5) at Miami: Hard Knocks in the preseason is not the football reality show people want to watch. What we want is to see Aaron Rodgers and Jets management locked in a steel cage death match, streaming live from a burning building.

Pick: Dolphins to win and cover, winning by six or more points.

New Orleans (-4.5) at NY Giants: Losing Taysom Hill is a crushing blow for the Saints. Yet somehow even without the only offensive player many casual fans can name, they’re favored to win by four-and-a-half in a road game against the Giants.

Pick: Saints to win and cover, winning by five or more points.

Cleveland (+6.5) at Pittsburgh: Jameis Winston is a human highlight reel for both teams. He may go down in history as the player not in the Hall of Fame who shows up on the most Hall of Famers induction highlight reels.

Pick: Steelers to win but not cover, winning by six or fewer points.

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Tennessee: This isn’t the worst season the Jags have ever had, which is like mentioning whatever the world’s second-worst dirigible explosion was and saying “Well, it’s no Hindenburg.”

Pick: Titans to win but not cover, winning by three or fewer points.

Chicago (+3.5) at San Francisco: That Buffalo game cost the 49ers both of their best running backs. They had the worst time I’ve ever seen in the snow since the ending of “The Shining.”

Pick: Bears to win it out always take a team to win after they fire their coach. right. Remember, IThat’s the only explanation here I can give you.

I’ll also take the Vikings over the Falcons, Bucs over the Raiders, and solid Christmas lights over twinkling ones. Good luck, everybody.