Dr. Kenneth A. Wink

Former President Donald J. Trump holds a five-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among likely voters in Texas, 51% to 46%, according to a pre-election poll conducted by The University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research.

This result mirrors a June poll that indicated Trump had a five-point advantage over President Joe Biden, 48% to 43%, with a decreasing number of undecided voters as the Nov. 5 election approaches, said Dr. Kenneth A. Wink, UT Tyler professor and poll director.

Trump’s current lead is slightly smaller than his 5.6% victory over Biden in Texas in 2020 and significantly less than his 9% win over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Fifty percent of respondents believe the upcoming election will be “close,” with 63% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans expecting a tight race.

“The margin of the election will likely determine whether pundits classify Texas as a red state or a battleground state in 2026 and 2028,” Wink said.

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Ted Cruz led Rep. Colin Allred by 2% among likely voters, 47% to 45%. This was in line with the June poll showing Cruz with a 3%-point lead over Allred among likely voters, 45% to 42%, again, with fewer undecided voters in the October poll, Wink noted.

Wink also pointed out that the closer race for U.S. Senate than for president is confirmed by other polls that show that what once was a three to 11 percentage point lead for Cruz throughout much of the year has shrunk to a three to five percentage point lead in late September and October.

“Though the race is close, more Republicans than Democrats claim they will be voting on Election Day, and voters who intend to vote on Election Day tend to turn out at rates lower than those who plan to vote early,” Wink said. “However, if Republicans favoring Cruz turn out to vote on Election Day at the same rates of voters who say they intend to early vote, Sen. Cruz could well win by a three to four percentage point margin.”

There has also been a recent shift in the policy issues Texans believe are the most important in the election, according to Wink. In the June poll, Texas likely voters had “securing the border” (39%), abortion (15%), and inflation (13%) as the most important issues. Additionally, among those listing abortion as the most important issue, those favoring “reproductive rights” outnumbered those favoring “restricting abortions” by 11% to 4%, respectively.

In the October poll, 29% of likely voters listed abortion as the most important issue, 24% listed “securing the border,” and 17% cited inflation. Interestingly, those citing abortion as the major issue are now split differently in the other direction, with 12% believing “reproductive rights” is the most important issue and 17% citing “restriction abortion” as the most important issue, Wink added.

“Ironically, it seems that the national and state Democratic Party focus on abortion as a winning issue for the Democrats may have the unintentional effect of mobilizing pro-life voters in Texas,” Wink said. “The Trump lead represents the typical 5% to 6% point lead most polls have shown over the last two months or so for the former President, in Texas. The smaller Cruz lead is consistent with a tightening race for the Senate seat, with voter turnout likely to be the deciding factor in the Senate race.”

Early voting is currently underway, and Election Day is Nov. 5 when polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.