Hector Garza

Local political experts say tonight’s presidential debate will be an early test for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump ahead of upcoming party nominations.

“I can see the best things that could happen for Biden and the best things that could happen for Trump — and also the worst things that could happen for each one of them,” UT Tyler Professor Kenneth Wink said.

CNN will host the first of two general election presidential debates at 8 p.m. Thursday – weeks before party delegates choose their nominees at upcoming national political conventions.

Moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash will lead the 90-minute debate.

Presidential debates serve several purposes: candidates reintroduce themselves to the American people, defend their records in office, highlight their strengths and justify their candidacy. Debates offer a platform to discuss key issues and critique the current officeholder’s record.

“How do they do? How do they come across? Do they have the temperament to be president? Do they appear to be presidential? Are they friendly? Are they optimistic,” Wink said. “These are things people want to see when they watch the debate in addition to learning about the issues.”

Wink believes Democrats want to see if Biden can demonstrate his capability and perform effectively. While Biden is expected to be the nominee, Wink suggests the debate will be a time for Democrats to assess whether they want to reconsider their candidate for the general election.

Conversely, Republicans fear Trump could lose his composure during the debate, Wink said. Voters need to see if these candidates meet their expectations of what a president should be.

In many respects, the pressure is on both of them to demonstrate this.

“I don’t think there’s any chance the Republicans would choose somebody over Trump,” Wink said. “I think Biden is likely to be the candidate, but I think there are some people who are questioning whether he can get the job done.”

This is the first time since 1988 the debate is not hosted by the Commission on Presidential Debates, a nonprofit organization authorized to sponsor debates under federal law. Both major party presidential candidates have refused to participate in its debates.

“Neither side wanted to use the Commission on Presidential Debates,” Wink said. “I really think the campaigns themselves want more control over the process. I think both sides think they can gain the system a little bit. They can get a better deal, something that benefits their candidate more than if they just get into whatever the Commission on Presidential Debates wants to do.”

Candidates’ microphones will be muted until they speak, and there will be no studio audience, according to the CNN announcement. CNN said there will also be no interaction from campaign staff, notes cannot be used, and interruptions are not allowed.

Independent and Libertarian candidates were excluded from the debate due to constitutional, ballot access and polling requirements.

It was agreed candidates polling at 15% in four polls and being on most or all state ballots should be included on the debate stage. Wink stated that excluding third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who the AP reported only qualified in three polls, is fair.

“Personally, I think Robert F. Kennedy is a viable candidate,” Wink said. “But I totally understand why you would not give a third lectern to somebody who’s polling at 6 or 7%. Since that person is very unlikely to win, you want to focus on the two people who are likely to win.”

The Commission on Presidential Debates typically organizes three debates each election cycle: one focusing on the economy, another on foreign policy and the third covering various domestic policy topics.

However, this year, only two debates will be scheduled.

“I don’t know if CNN and ABC are coordinating,” Wink said. “So, not knowing that I’ll just throw out some topics that should be addressed at some point in one of the two debates.”

Wink said the Biden administration might encourage questioning about the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol riots, whether candidates will accept election results and how Hunter Biden’s conviction shows that the judicial system is not corrupt.

The economy ranks as a top topic that should be addressed in one or both debates.

Hector Garza, Chair of the Smith County Democratic Party, hopes Trump and Biden also address topics like Medicaid, Medicare, social security, veterans’ issues, education, healthcare and issues that impact working-class Americans.

The Trump campaign may have questions about border security. Wink also mentioned other likely topics of discussion, including crime and gun violence, and abortion.

David Stein, chairman of the Smith County Republican Party, said border security, the economy and election integrity are top issues for Republicans and nearly all voters. Stein hopes foreign policy and national security are also discussed.

“These are people that have each been president once; they have a record that should be scrutinized and that they should have to defend,” Wink said. “I’m sure they will ask about both the candidates’ records as president.”

While Wink suspects campaigns aim to steer debates in their favor, he suggests debate outcomes rarely have a long-term impact on campaigns or significantly sway voters’ decisions.

“Debates are … important data points, but they rarely decide the election on their own,” Wink said. “It’s one of many campaign events that occur over the course of … the election year.”

Debate outcomes may influence voter decisions, but candidates’ performances do not solely determine the presidency. The excitement generated by the campaign and the turnout on Election Day can determine the outcome of the election.

According to the Pew Research Center, both major party candidates have experienced the highest negative views at this stage in the election cycle since 1988.

Voter apathy, or a lack of interest in political participation, can significantly influence the outcome of presidential elections. Wink noted it’s not just about slight fluctuations in voter turnout for each candidate but which party’s base is more excited about their nominee.

“Can we make sure our people are excited enough by our campaign to actually go out and vote,” Wink said. “It’s one thing to feel like you would rather see somebody win than somebody else … but are you actually going to do it?”

Most people’s opinions will remain the same, but some are undecided and the debate could influence voters’ decisions.

Stein wants voters to hear candidates speak beyond sound bites and hopes to get a more complete picture of their thoughts and accomplishments, “not drone on in an argument, but give their opinion, what they believe they’ve done.”

Republicans are eager to observe whether Biden will perform well throughout the debate without faltering or losing focus.

Garza hopes candidates avoid terms like “sleepy,” “arrests,” “feeble-minded,” claims of being “greatest” and unnecessary arguing or attempts to undermine each other during the discussion.

“I’m not sure it’s what they say, it’s how they say it,” Stein added. “Not looking for sound bites, not looking for anecdotes, but I think clearly articulating what policy will create a specific outcome or intended outcome.”

However challenging it can be, Stein said it’s important to listen fully to what the candidates say without filtering too much, even if someone plans to disagree with either candidate.

People should watch the debate without reacting or discussing too much while it is happening, which might cause them to miss what is being said in the present moment.

Hearing both candidates will give voters new perspectives on who and what they’re voting for, Garza said. Too many folks focus on party labels, he said. Before voting or deciding, listen to the candidates and consider how their plans will impact daily life.

Wink advises taking what candidates say with caution and conducting research after the fact to verify their statements.

“Give it your full attention and be open-minded,” Wink said. “Everybody brings their values to it, and what they want to see and what they think they’re seeing, but try to be as open-minded as possible. Then I will also add [to] follow up.”

William Carlton, president of the Democratic Club of Smith County, said “do your homework,” don’t relay on the same news sources when fact checking. People have to search to find the truth to avoid being caught in “echo-chambers,” that spin one narrative.

“Differing viewpoints to consider are a good thing before coming to a conclusion,” Carlton said. “In one of [former president Franklin Roosevelt’s] first speeches to the American public…he reminded people that they had a responsibly to help find solutions and work with their government to solve them. [Former president John F. Kennedy] asked people to put their country before themselves. Now it’s our turn.”

The CNN Presidential Debate will air live at 8 p.m. Thursday on CNN, CNN International, CNN en Español, CNN Max and stream without a cable login on CNN.com.

The parties will officially nominate their candidates at the upcoming national conventions. The Republican National Convention is July 15 to 18 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, while the Democratic National Convention is Aug. 19 to 22 in Chicago.

ABC News will host the second debate on Sept. 10. It will air on ABC News Live and the 24/7 streaming network ABC News and Hulu.

The CNN Presidential Debate will air live at 8 p.m. Thursday on CNN, CNN International, CNN en Español and CNN Max. It will also be streamed live at CNN.com, where a cable login is not required.