Independent presidential candidate Cornel West

The Center for Opinion Research at The University of Texas at Tyler conducted its latest public opinion poll of registered Texas voters Feb. 18-26. Among findings were those related to candidate favorability, candidate preference in the Texas primaries and the general election, and voter perceptions of the most important issues in the campaign.

In a two-person race for president, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Texas, 46% to 42%, according to polling results.

If former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley were to be the Republican nominee, she leads President Biden in a hypothetical matchup 42% to 36%, a larger margin than that of Trump but with more undecided voters.

In a five-person hypothetical election, Trump defeats Biden 41% to 37%, the same 4% margin, with Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gaining 13% voter support and Cornel West – also an Independent candidate – earning 6% voter support.

However, Haley’s 6% margin evaporates in a hypothetical five-person race, with Biden defeating Haley 36% to 33%, with Kennedy then winning 20% of the vote and West winning 7% of the vote.

“One of the big unanswered questions for the Republicans in their two-candidate primary race is whether the loser’s supporters will back the party’s eventual nominee in the general election. Our results suggest that the answer to that question is ‘no’ when it comes to Trump supporters in Texas,” said Dr. Ken Wink, UT Tyler professor and interim center director. “It appears that many Trump supporters would opt for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., over Nikki Haley in the general election if Haley, rather than Trump, were to be the GOP nominee.”

Voters’ perceptions of issues also produced some interesting results. By far and away, securing the border was the most important issue of voters, garnering 35% of the responses. A distant second was inflation, earning the answers of 15% of the voters. Smaller numbers of voters (9%) identified the need for more gun control and more protection for reproductive rights as tied for the third most important issues facing Texans.

Later in the survey, when Texans were asked how Biden had handled the border issue, 46% strongly disapproved of his handling of the issue, 15% somewhat disapproved, 17% somewhat approved, and 11% strongly approved.

“While Trump’s lead over Biden suggests the election will be closer than the last two presidential elections involving candidate Trump, it does not bode well for President Biden that Texans perceive he has badly mishandled the issue they believe to be the most important,” Wink said.

In the Texas U.S. Senate race, voters were very polarized over Sen. Ted Cruz, with an overall unfavorable impression of Cruz, 48% to 39% favorable. U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, a potential challenger to Cruz, had a 41% to 18% favorable over unfavorable rating, but with 29% of “do not know” responses.

“While the verdict may still be out on the Allred candidacy, a hypothetical match between Cruz and Allred showed a tie with both candidates garnering 41% of the vote, while 19% said they did not know or would likely vote for someone else,” Wink added.

The poll was developed with a mix-method polling effort, with 1,167 respondents (865 online, 302 telephone). The margin of error with design effect was =/- 3.1%.

About UT Tyler

With a mission to improve educational and health care outcomes for East Texas and beyond, UT Tyler offers more than 90 undergraduate and graduate programs to nearly 10,000 students. Through its alignment with UT Tyler Health Science Center and UT Health East Texas, UT Tyler has unified these entities to serve Texas with quality education, cutting-edge research and excellent patient care.

Classified by Carnegie as a doctoral research institution and by the U.S. News & World Report as a national university, UT Tyler has campuses in Tyler, Longview, Palestine and Houston.