In this combination of photos, Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks on Sept. 16, in Des Moines, Iowa, at left, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, speaks on Sept. 12, in Sacramento, Calif., at right.

1. 2024 election events calendar

An East Texas professor says Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom are both likely to benefit from an unusual debate scheduled for Thursday.

Florida Gov. DeSantis, who is a leading 2024 presidential candidate for the Republican Party, will square off against California Gov. Newsom, a Democrat, in the televised debate.

UT Tyler’s Dr. Kenneth Wink, a professor of public administration, said the showdown is historic.

“Here you have a debate between a Democrat and a Republican, neither of whom is the front-runner for their respective party’s nomination, in the fall before the primaries,” Wink said. “I cannot remember seeing anything like this in my lifetime, since following politics since the 1970s.”

While it’s uncommon, Wink said the debate will likely work to the advantage of both DeSantis and Newsom’s individual goals.

“Unless someone flops completely or says something extremely controversial, I expect both candidates to benefit,” Wink said. “Sure, there is some risk involved, but the possibilities for rewards are much greater.”

Set in Alpharetta, Georgia, the 90-minute debate will start at 8 p.m. central time and be moderated by Sean Hannity. It will be broadcast live on Fox News Channel and simulcast on Fox News Radio. The debate will also be streamed on foxnews.com, but an active cable subscription will be required to access the stream.

Presidential debates are typically held in the fall, of odd-numbered years, before the primaries and from members of the same party (all Democrats or all Republicans) then again in the fall, even-numbered years, before the general election from the two candidates who get each party’s nomination, Wink said.

There is also a debate between vice presidential candidates in the fall of the general election year.

“Clearly this is an attempt by DeSantis and Newsom to appeal to voters without having to share a stage with several other candidates,” Wink said.

DeSantis has been one of the top presidential candidates for the Republican nomination, while Newsom is not in the race and has asserted he will not get in the way of current President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign.

The term-limited governors, who lead two of the nation’s largest and most influential states, have been outspoken about their disapproval of one another. Their rivalry is considered one of the “fiercest … in U.S. politics,” according to the Associated Press. Newsom first challenged DeSantis to a debate on Sept. 16, 2022 in a tweet on X, formerly known as Twitter, and talks of the debate became more serious in June.

Newsom has been a prominent supporter of Biden and a leader within the Democratic Party. While he has previously said he has no interest in running for president, many believe he’s working to position himself for a 2028 run. Taking part in this debate could further fuel speculation about a White House bid.

According to Wink, Newsom has nothing to lose since this is an opportunity to present himself favorably to skeptics or those who don’t know him.

“He is a young guy who probably sees his best chance as being the Democratic nominee in 2028,” Wink said. “Be the good soldier. Support Biden. Wait your turn. But he can debate DeSantis about whether California or Florida has been most successful in recent years, and still gain attention and notoriety without being seen as disloyal to Biden.”

This way, if anything were to happen to Biden, Newsom is “the most popular Democrat, ready and willing to step in, but only if he needs to,” Wink said.

“So Newsom comes out a winner either way,” Wink said. “Unless he makes a major mistake in the debate.”

There are a couple issues with the notion of Newsom “stepping in the gap,” Wind adds. If Biden ends up winning the nomination but then has a health scare in the late spring, summer, or early fall before the election, the Democrats would have to figure out what to do, Wink said.

“The Democratic National Committee would likely have to step in and figure out a procedure for picking another nominee,” Wink said. “But you have the vice presidential candidate as the obvious potential nominee.”

The latest polls show that Vice President Kamala Harris has the lowest rate of approval/highest rate of disapproval of any potential candidate, including former President Donald Trump and Biden. However, if she is passed over for Newsom, Wink said the question arises of if that act would be seen as disloyalty to the African American community, which is a major base in the Democratic Party foundation.

“The answer to this question is not obvious to me, but it is an important one and I am sure key figures in the national Democratic Party establishment are attempting to figure it out and to address it if the situation requires a move away from Biden,” Wink said.

As for DeSantis, for most of this campaign season, voters and pundits have seen him as the major opponent of Trump, as in the one who would likely win the nomination if Trump were to fall in the polls due to his legal troubles, Wink said.

“The national polls still show DeSantis running second behind Trump, but Nikki Haley had strong debate performances in the first and second Republican debates and she has cut into DeSantis’ second-place lead since the last debate in late September,” Wink said. “In fact, recent polling shows her ahead of DeSantis in two of the four early caucus and primary states, New Hampshire and South Carolina.”

The speculation is if Haley wins over DeSantis in those two states, she is likely to gain even more momentum, more donors and challenge DeSantis in the later primaries in other states.

“So right now, voters, pundits, and the all-important donors see her as having momentum,” Wink said. “This is a great opportunity for DeSantis, assuming he has a good debate, to recapture that momentum without having to engage Haley directly, since she will not be in the debate.”

As to what issues Hannity will bring up during Thursday’s debate, Wink said it could be any myriad of cultural issues such as abortion, gun control, masks/vaccines, border security and climate change, or economic issues like inflation, unemployment and increased productivity, and foreign policy issues like Ukraine/Russia, China/Taiwan, Israel/Palestine, when and how to project U.S. military power, et cetera.

“I think this debate will be unique in that I expect the moderators to ask, and the debaters to answer, questions regarding the successes and failures, from a policy standpoint, of the two states, California and Florida,” Wink said. “So I expect cultural and economic policy questions to be answered not just as hypotheticals but with real-world examples from the two states.”

Both candidates could possibly use examples from their states to show their competence, experience, and temperament to be President of the United States.

“In other words, candidate qualities on how they have and can govern will be on display, and not just policy questions and answers,” Wink said.