Reid Kerr

After three weeks of the NFL season, I think it’s time for me to issue my annual reminder.

Calm down, everybody.

It’s way too early to jump to conclusions. Yes, last week was really surprising in a lot of ways. The Cowboys are the best team in the league, and are favored by 12 over the hapless Cardinals? Sure seemed like a sure thing, didn’t it? That Dolphins-Broncos game, it might be closer than we think, right? And how about the Bears being nearly two-touchdown underdogs at the Chiefs?

As we know now, we don’t really know anything yet. Well, except that the Bears are awful. The Cardinals are bad, but not “Our defensive coordinator just quit on us, and we don’t know where some of our equipment is all of a sudden-bad.”

This last week was just evidence that the NFL is anybody’s ballgame, every single week. That whole “Any Given Sunday” thing wasn’t just a slogan for an awful movie, it’s the truth. Except now with the NFL expanding its reach, it should be “Every Given Sunday, Monday, Thursday, and some Saturdays in December, and on occasional Tuesdays in times of national crisis.”

That’s the thing that makes the NFL compelling television, and the advantage it has over other pro sports. The regular season games are all important. They may not be vital, but mathematically they mean more than other leagues, and no matter what the expectations are, any team can win any matchup.

So when the totally shocking happens, just take a page from Aaron Rodgers’ book and relax. Over the course of a still-weird-to-say-it 17-game season, you’re going to get a couple of weeks with anomalies like that. It doesn’t mean the end of the world for the Cowboys, for example.

For Denver? Eh, maybe.

Time for my week four picks. Last week, I went an astoundingly awful 1-5, and 2-3-1 against the Vegas point spreads. In my defense, I forgot that the Jaguars are the only team the Texans ever beat on a regular basis. Lesson learned there. I’m now 9-9 on the season, and 10-7-1 against Vegas overall. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

New England (+6.5) at Dallas: The notion that the Patriots having former Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott and Will Grier on the roster gives them an advantage over Dallas is kind of silly, and only would matter if the Cowboys are dumb enough not to change any of their signals. So I only give that about a 50% chance of happening.

Pick: Cowboys to win and cover, winning by seven or more points.

Atlanta (+3) vs. Jacksonville in London: Quick reminder, this international game is played early, so you’ll need to set your fantasy football rosters as soon as you wake up. You know, as opposed to the way you normally do it, which is sneaking a look during the last hymn five minutes before kickoff.

Pick: Jags to win and cover, winning by four or more.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) at New Orleans: When you watch the NFL Draft and see teams taking quarterbacks early and being optimistic, remember that Jameis Winston was once the top pick in an entire draft class that produced absolutely zero quality starters.

Pick: Saints to win but not cover, winning by three or fewer.

Las Vegas (+5) at LA Chargers: The Raiders loss last week came about because of some bad decisions. Which isn’t a surprise, since that’s what the entire city of Las Vegas was founded on.

Pick: Raiders to win it outright.

Denver (+3.5) at Chicago: The winner of this game gets their first victory of the season. The loser gets another week’s worth of evidence that they need to fire everybody.

Pick: Broncos to win it outright.

Kansas City (-8.5) ay NY Jets: I can’t guarantee that my predictions will be correct, or that my attempts at hilarity will always land, but I can promise you this, dear readers. This column will remain a Taylor-Swift-joke-free space.

Pick: Chiefs to win and cover, winning by nine or more.

I’ll also take the Dolphins over the Bills, Ravens over the Browns, and being beaten with a sock full of nickels over being in a Jets offensive team meeting right now. Good luck, everybody.

Reid Kerr saw where this week was the 10-year anniversary of the finale of “Breaking Bad,” and he has no idea how to celebrate that. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.