Reid Kerr

Two weeks into the NFL season, and I’m already starting to get piles of mail, metaphorically speaking of course. No one actually sends me mail anymore. And why would you? It’s so much easier to send angry tweets, or “X’s,” or whatever they’re called these days. And I deal with the world of professional sports, which means I get lots of email, tweets, DMs, MySpace comments, telegrams, and poorly-spelled-messages-wrapped-in-rocks this time of year anyway.

So for the purposes of discussion, I’m just going to take the most popular questions I get, and then boil them all down to simple questions and answers.

“You were wrong about (something and everything)!”

First, thank you, but that’s not a question. Yes, I was. It happens a lot, really, it’s been used as evidence in several divorce proceedings. I make my predictions, I lay down my wagers, and I take my chances. Professional handicappers typically have to win around 55% of their predictions to make it, as long time readers know, I have been far above that number in the past. Also? Far far below that number as well. So I won’t always be right, as all of my bosses have informed me at one time or another.

“Why do you always pick against (this person’s favorite team)?”

No offense intended! It’s just that your team is probably a total clown autopsy.

“Why don’t you pick the (insert any team here) games every week?”

This one is connected to the previous question, because it’s kind of the same reason. I don’t pick all the games, and I don’t pick the same teams every week. I’m just looking for what I consider the best matchups. And more importantly to me, I believe firmly that bad teams are way more consistent than good teams. The best teams stumble occasionally, but the worst teams are steady in their awfulness. That means often, I’m not picking who will win a game. I’m deciding who I think will lose it, and quite often the only question is how many points they’ll lose by.

“If you picked Jacksonville to be the top seed in the AFC, why did you pick the Chiefs to beat them?”

Well, first, let me just say … I was right. After a lifetime in radio and TV and various alleged marriages, I don’t get to say that very often. But yes, I think the Chiefs are a better team, and picked their win last week. But picking playoff teams is all about the long look, and the Chiefs have a much harder schedule than the Jags. The NFL is not just who you are, it’s who you play. It’s like taking ugly friends with you to the bar, it makes you look better. And I know, because I am that friend. And I’m still available, if you’re buying the Tater Skins.

“Let me tell you about my fantasy team…”

No. There’s nothing more boring than hearing about someone else’s fantasy team. If you try and tell me yours, you’re going to hear my story about the time back in 2000 when I traded Kurt Warner for a draft pick that I turned into Tony Banks. At this point, I can’t remember if it was the quarterback or the keyboard player from Genesis, but it doesn’t really matter. The only advice I ever have for fantasy players is to draft a tight end that’s on a team with a young quarterback, because they always look short for the big guys. Past that, I can’t help you.

“What’s the best piece of NFL advice you can give me?”

Don’t buy a jersey of your favorite team with the name of a current running back on it.

Time for my week three picks. Last week, I went 4-1 and 3-2 against the Vegas point spreads. In my defense, I didn’t realize the Bears would already be playing for the first pick in the next two drafts. Lesson learned there. I’m now 8-4 on the season, and also 8-4 against Vegas overall. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Dallas (-12.5) at Arizona: In a season with high expectations, the Cowboys injury report is starting to become an epic tragedy, like Romeo and Juliet, or MacBeth, or those other books we were supposed to read in college but didn’t.

Pick: Cowboys to win but not cover, winning by 12 or fewer points.

Houston (+8.5) at Jacksonville: I feel like the Texans are getting better so far this year, but at the speed of continental drift.

Pick: Jags to win but not cover, winning by eight or fewer points.

Tennessee (+3.5) at Cleveland: Last week, Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson was charged with two separate facemask penalties. Not surprising, we already knew Watson was a bit grabby.

Pick: Titans to win it outright.

Chicago (+12.5) at Kansas City: The Bears said this week that no one in their organization was panicking, which in terms of implausible denials, is right up there with “I never saw your text,” and “I promise you I haven’t been drinking, officer.”

Pick: Chiefs to win but not cover, winning by 12 or fewer points.

LA Chargers (+1) at Minnesota: This battle of 0-2 teams is absolutely the Desperation Bowl. Much like my resume, the Chargers look good on paper, but it just isn’t carrying over into real life.

Pick: Vikings to win and cover, winning by two or more.

LA Rams (+3) at Cincinnati: The Rams are better than we thought they’d be, and the Bengals are … let’s be honest, we have no idea what the overwhelming problem could be. Is it the Burrow injury? Is it the defense? Is it the odd sauce that Cincinnati folks try and convince us is chili? We may never know.

Pick: Rams to win it outright.

I’ll also takethe Seahawks over the Panthers, Steelers over the Raiders, and Colorado press conferences over most college football games. Good luck, everybody.

Reid Kerr feels like no matter what group of people he’s a part of, he always feels like he’s the Joe Walsh of it. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.