Reid Kerr

The NFL is finally back! And as a veteran prognosticator, let me remind you of one thing.

We don’t know anything about this season yet.

If Thursday night didn’t make you realize that, let me affirm it. Nope. We think we do, but we really don’t. We’re just guessing based on last season’s results, the draft, free agency, and the opposite of whatever Skip Bayless says.

For my official predictions, I took the Ravens over the 49ers in the Super Bowl. And over the course of my lifetime, I’ve been correct on that Super Bowl pick exactly zero times.

There’s always some stunning developments. Remember last season, when Geno Smith erased the last eight years of his career? Or when the Jets had both rookies of the year? Or when Alabama quarterbacks suddenly became a thing again for the first time since Joe Namath? Or when the last pick in the draft made a case for MVP?

Of course not. That’s why they play the games. That’s why every year there’s a 40-50% turnover among the playoff teams. And that’s why casinos look like cathedrals, and not like those buildings where a Walmart used to be. It’s the mystery that makes us watch.

Time for my week one picks. In my years of picking games here at the paper, I’m 381-236-2, and 423-412-25 picking against the Vegas point spreads. After Thursday night, I start this season a whopping 0-1 on both sides of the ledger, although I maintain the Chiefs would have won if their receivers hadn’t soaked all their gloves in butter before the game. Lesson learned there. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Dallas (-3.5) at NY Giants: The Giants seem right on the verge of either making a nice playoff run, or dropping off of the radar completely. It’ll be awesome or unwatchable, the football equivalent of a Marvel movie.

Pick: Cowboys to win and cover, winning by four or more.

Houston (+9.5) at Baltimore: New coach, new quarterback, new attitude for the Texans. Fans are only hoping this one works better than the last four or five times it’s happened recently.

Pick: Ravens to win and cover, winning by 10 or more.

Jacksonville (-5) at Indianapolis: The Colts are without their best rusher, and starting a rookie quarterback. I don’t think they could be any more obvious about tanking if they started lining up nine players on offense.

Pick: Jags to win and cover, winning by six or more.

Arizona (+7) at Washington: If you’re a Washington football fan, every game this season without Dan Snyder is a win.

Pick: Commanders to win but not cover, winning by six or fewer.

Las Vegas (+3.5) at Denver: I have even less confidence in the Raiders than I do anything else in Las Vegas, and that’s really saying something.

Pick: Broncos to win and cover, winning by four or more.

Buffalo (-2.5) at NY Jets: One of these teams gets a win, and holds off the unreasonable expectations for another week. The other team winds up the headline of all the Tuesday sports talk shows.

Pick: Bills to win but not cover, winning by two or fewer.

I’ll also take the 49ers over the Steelers, Eagles over the Patriots, and Damar Hamlin to win the Comeback Player of the Year award as soon as he takes the field on Monday night. Good luck, everybody.

Reid Kerr went to see a jazz drummer in concert this week and enjoyed it, but admits if he were single that’s not the kind of thing he’d put on his dating profile. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.