Reid Kerr

Dear readers, I’ve made my final notes, said good-bye to my family, and checked in with my wagering concierge Formerly Fat Tony. I’m ready for this NFL season to finally begin Thursday.

Time for my guaranteed-to-be-wrong predictions. Fair warning, at least one thing I’m about to say will make you question my sanity, much like all of my wives did eventually.

Quick explanation, there’s two main things I consider, talent and scheduling. The Chiefs are my pick for the most talented team, but not for the top seed in the AFC. And now that you’re certain I’m insane, let me get some of my other predictions out of the way.

In the NFC East, the good news is that I have Dallas making the playoffs. The bad news? They’re a wild card team again. The Eagles are just too good and will win the division, although they won’t be the number one seed. That honor goes to San Francisco, as long as they have a Bosa and a quarterback for most of the season. I’ll also take Seattle as a wild card team out of the West, I’ll fairly bullish on the Seahawks. The North looks like a tossup to me and when I’m in doubt, I pick the best quarterback, so give me Chicago. And the South is going to be a big pile of refuse again, but I think the Saints finally get steady offensive production and take it, with Atlanta squeaking out the last wild card spot.

I’m leaving out Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and the Giants from last year. And yes, I know Detroit is everybody’s “it” team, because for the first time in decades, they played hard last season. I just don’t see it. Every year it seems like there’s one team that finishes strong out of nowhere, and then next season goes right back there.

As for the AFC, the Chiefs are the best team to me on paper, assuming Travis Kelce and Chris Jones are both healthy and present. And I’ve got them winning the AFC West again, but not as the top seed.

I’m not sure I’ve ever said this in my entire lifetime, but I’m taking the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the number one seed in the AFC.

I know, I sound like a man who should not be legally allowed to drive, vote, or own property. But just hear me out for a moment and consider a very good team with a great young quarterback and coaching staff, in a bad division with a very easy schedule. I see 12 games they’ll be clear favorites in, and four of the other five are at home. They could really run this one, while the Chiefs have a harder division and a grinder of a schedule to deal with. Give me the Dolphins to win the East and the Bills as a wild card team, and the Ravens to win the North with the Bengals and Steelers both to make the postseason.

In the end, I’ll say the Ravens win it over the Forty-Niners. And remember, my Super Bowl prediction record has never even been close to correct, so make your own guesses accordingly.

Time for my first pick of the season.I feel like I need a fast start this time, since last year I was not quite as accurate as flipping a coin. In my years of picking games here at the paper, I’m 381-236-2, and 423-412-25 picking against the Vegas point spreads. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Detroit (+5) at Kansas City: This one was an easy one to pick a couple of days ago. However, with Travis Kelce possibly out for this one, I reconsidered a bit. Kansas City might be without their best player on both sides of the ball, not counting Mahomes. But he does count, so my pick didn’t change.

Pick: Chiefs to win and cover, which means I think they’ll win by six or more points.

I’ll also take the Chiefs to go 13-4, the Lions to go 9-8, and people to start complaining about Cris Collinsworth sometime before the opening kickoff. Good luck, everybody.

Reid Kerr is in the 30th year of his fantasy football league. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.