Voters go to The HUB to cast their ballots during the start of early voting in October 2022 ahead of Election Day.

By Staff Report

Border security, inflation and gun control are top concerns for registered voters in Texas. Still, the ranking of importance shifted in May, said Dr. Ken Wink, UT Tyler professor of public administration.

Seven of 10 Texans polled in the latest University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research survey reflected heightened concern over gun violence in local communities.

The survey reflects the views of 1,413 registered voters in Texas who participated in the poll online or over the phone between May 10 and May 21, days after the Allen Mall shooting on May 6.

“These sentiments are higher than any previous UT Tyler polls. That includes surveys released in February 2023 (67%), October 2022 (64%) and August 2022 (67%),” Wink said.

Texas Republicans maintained government control after the 2022 elections, but 59% of voters believe the state is on the wrong track – a 5% increase from February.

Still, Texas Republicans have an advantage in setting the direction on many issues.

Texas voters trust Republicans more than Democrats to reduce crime (20% more), secure the border (37% more), handle the electric grid (6% more) and improve education (1% more).

The survey also showed that Gov. Greg Abbott’s approval held steady at 49% approve and 48% disapprove.

A special session would give the legislature more time to consider and advance school choice legislation the public supports. But, approval is slipping, and the future of the policy is unclear, Wink said.

In February, 60% of voters supported allowing parents to use public funds to send their children to private schools if it were described as “school choice.” Almost three months later, public support fell by 6% if the term was used (54%).

Public support for the policy is 52% if the phrase school choice is not used.

A majority of voters still support the education savings accounts, generally, but as local leaders raise their voices, it is clear that the window of opportunity to pass this legislation may be closing if it does not happen this summer, according to Wink.

Early Look to 2024

A pessimistic voter outlook could allow Texas Democrats to offer a new alternative. U.S. Rep. Colin Allred joined this effort by announcing his candidacy for the U.S. Senate. However, Allred faces two challenges – name recognition and incumbency.

Voters who were polled were unfamiliar with Rep. Allred (48% did not know enough). Despite being unknown in corners of the state, Allred sits 5% behind Sen. Ted Cruz in a head-to-head contest, with 21% hoping for someone else or undecided.

Politics of Exceptions

One year after the Supreme Court’s draft opinion in the Dobbs case was leaked, the issue of reproductive rights is still of interest to most voters in Texas.

Two-thirds of voters have heard “a lot” about the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Forty-two percent of registered voters strongly or somewhat approve of the judicial opinion. This opinion has remained stable since February and is 4% lower than in May 2022 and September 2022. Opposition to the Dobbs decision is as high as 49% of the voters, and this plurality is striking because 45% of registered voters say they are upset one year later.

Eighty-nine percent of voters showed clear support for policies that may allow exceptions to an abortion ban if a woman’s health is at stake, including 48% that would not put a time limit on the exception during a pregnancy. The public also supports an exception in the case of rape or incest (89%), but the plurality is that this only be available in the first trimester (36%).