Mark Owens, associate professor of political science at UT Tyler

A local political science expert says it’s too soon to tell how former President Donald Trump’s indictment will shake up the 2024 presidential race.

“It is likely too early to say what the impact is on the 2024 race,” said Dr. Mark Owens, an associate professor of political science at the University of Texas at Tyler. “He is still one of the few names on the Republican side that people recognize and feel that they know.”

Trump became the first former president to be indicted Thursday, facing allegations related to a $130,000 payment made to an adult film star during the final days of the 2016 presidential campaign. The exact charges are unknown, as the indictment remains sealed.

As he looks to reclaim his seat in the Oval Office, many analysts suggest Trump will use the charges to his advantage as his supporters view the indictment as politically motivated.

“We must remember, his first victories in the 2016 campaign came when he was underestimated,” Owens said. “This brings former President Trump back into the spotlight and he will have the opportunity to frequently speak to the public again. He is likely to use this to focus his campaign on President (Joe) Biden to limit current contrasts to other Republican candidates in the primary. Whether this can increase his support is completely dependent on the voters.”

Ultimately, though, there is no legal impact on Trump’s campaign, Owens said.

“He’s still a candidate,” Owens said. “The U.S. Constitution and federal campaign and election laws do not make someone ineligible to run while under indictment.”

Owens added there has not been a verdict yet and an indictment is only a formal accusation.

“When a person is indicted, they are given formal notice that it is believed that they committed a crime. The indictment contains the basic information that informs the person of the charges against them,” according to the U.S. Justice Department.

The indictment comes as Trump faces separate, ongoing investigations into his alleged involvement in 2020 election interference by his supporters and the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, along with his handling of classified documents after leaving office.

Owens said when it comes to those who are against Trump, “the biggest impact will come from his opponents in reminding voters about the indictment until a final decision is reached.”

Because the charges were brought after Trump was no longer in office and deal with activities that happened before he was president, Owens said the public’s trust of those in presidential power shouldn’t be affected.

“The allegation and the indictment both treat Trump as a private citizen,” Owens said. “The public can understand and make that distinction.”

Now, Trump’s attorneys and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office are working to schedule the former commander-in-chief’s surrender, which is expected to take place early next week, according to the New York Daily News.

“President Trump has been indicted. He did not commit any crime. We will vigorously fight this political prosecution in court,” Trump’s attorney Joe Tacopina and Susan Necheles said in a joint statement to the New York Daily News.

Trump faces more than two dozen charges, according to the New York Times and CNN, though details were not immediately known.

The New York Daily News reported the grand jury heard evidence about the “hush money payment” to porn star Stormy Daniels on the eve of Trump’s 2016 election as president, among other areas of interest related to his financial habits and business dealings, according to sources and witnesses who testified before the grand jury.

Although this is the first time a former president has been formally indicted, Owens said this is not “wholly unprecedented.”

“President (Richard) Nixon was questioned in 1975 after an investigation from a grand jury of the District of Columbia in 1974. That was also after President Gerald Ford pardoned the former president,” Owens said. “A grand jury is comprised of citizens and remains independent from those serving in the executive branch and may be interested in protecting the presidency the way Ford did when he pardoned Nixon.”