Reid Kerr

I’ll be honest, dear reader. I enjoy the two week break between the championships and the Super Bowl, because it’s the only weekend of the season where I can’t lose a game.

As a veteran NFL fan since 1973 whose first full sentence was “parlays are for suckers,” I’ll be honest. I don’t watch any NFL coverage leading up to the Super Bowl. It’s too much. I watch the championship game wrap-ups on Monday, and then it’s a full media blackout for me.

By the way, “full media blackout” is also how I describe that one night at the 1996 Cowboys Camp in Austin where a bunch of us radio people accidentally made our way into Barry Switzer’s favorite after-hours club. I’d love to tell that story, but those court records will only be unsealed 50 years after my death.

But back to my point, barring a quarterback breaking a foot in the shower, there’s no further information that I need to make my predictions. The coverage is maddeningly useless. All I need to know are the lines.

And man, people will bet on anything and everything Super Bowl related. Forbes estimates that $16 billion will be wagered on the Super Bowl. And if my wife asks, I’m only responsible for maybe half of that.

It’s more than just the usual “What color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach?” wagers, which I think I haven’t picked correctly since it landed on Bill Parcells. You can show off your predictions on which players will score, how many yards they’ll get, or for a truly random wager, even how they’ll do compared to various college basketball teams or European soccer clubs. In fact, there are over a dozen prop bets you can make just about Super Bowl field goals, just in case you’d like to risk your money on something we all find boring.

And by the way, many of these wagers are available through the NFL’s many gambling partners. If you’re employed by the league, don’t make them. Not even if you’re on a team that’s been out for a month and you’ve been on Injured Reserve since the coin flip of the opening game. Don’t do it, or you’ll set off the NFL’s Irony Monitors and you’ll get suspended.

Here’s some of the big, weird ones for this weekend.

Coin Flip, heads or tails, either way it’s at -102: This is the wager I always use to illustrate to people how the house always wins. Let’s say you and I bet both sides of this one for a hundred-and-two bucks. One of us loses, one of us wins a hundred dollars, and Vegas take two bucks either way. This is a popular bet with the numbers always right at a 50/50 spread, and a 2% profit for the oddsmakers no matter what happens. This is why casinos are bright shiny buildings, and not in those dumps where the Walmart used to be in your town. You can also bet on which team will win the coin toss, either way it’s at -105 which is pretty much the same wager, but even worse odds. Math is your friend. I’ll take the Eagles and tails in a wild guess.

Chris Stapleton’s hat color? (Black +350, Other -600): Stapleton is singing the national anthem this year. It seems to me like this one would be an easy bet for him to cash in on, by picking his hat and making a wager under a name like “Smith Schmapleton” or something like that. I’ll go with the white hat here.

Rihanna’s first song at halftime? (Don’t Stop the Music, +150): As an official old guy, I can assure you that I’ll only know about 50-60% of the halftime show at best. More if RiRi gives us a swerve and throws in a few Doobie Brothers covers. I’ll take “Titanium” in an upset.

Will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter? (Yes +250, No -325): Basically this one asks if you expect this to be a close game in the fourth quarter. We tend to think of Super Bowls as tight games, but that’s really the exception rather than the rule. I say no.

And finally, the game itself. For the playoffs, I’m 7-7 straight up, and 5-9 against Vegas. In my time here at the paper, I’m 64-40-1 picking playoff games, and 37-45-1 against Vegas. I’m on a two-year streak of playoff disappointment so bad it can only be described as “Dallas Cowboy fans-ish,” so take this one with a grain of salt and feel free to bet against me.

Super Bowl LVII, Kansas City (+1.5) vs. Philadelphia: To start with, why is the NFL still using Roman Numerals? Pretty much the Super Bowl and Friday the 13th sequels are the only things that can still get away with using those.

OK, now that I’ve got that off of my chest, let me be clear. I root with my heart, but I predict with my brain. To maintain my objectivity, I need to maintain a direct line from my prefrontal cortex straight to my wallet. When I look at these two teams, the quarterback and coaching edge just screams at me to take Kansas City. But the offensive line and defensive edge goes to Philly, and that’s where playoff games are won.

So give me the Eagles to win it and cover, winning by two or more. I’ll take the total points scored to be under 51, and Jalen Hurts to be named MVP. And I hope I’m wrong on all of those.

Happy Super Bowl weekend, everybody. We’ll be back here for the recap next week, when I look back at the game and also try and remember the names of these people who are living in my house.

— Reid Kerr was much happier with the Pro Football Hall of Fame voting than he ever is with the Rock and Roll one. You can always tweet questions, comments and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.