Reid Kerr

Eh, I got nothing.

I don’t know what to tell you guys. It’s already been a long season, prediction-wise. I like to think I know what I’m doing but every time I really buy in heavy on a team, they spend the next week losing to some team with no business getting a win.

I’ve been all-in so far on the Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, and Cowboys, who promptly lost to the Colts, Jets, Commanders, and an under-12 flag team with one early-developed kid with a mustache. I just don’t know anymore.

So what does all that mean? Well, for starters, no one is really that good. Or that bad, for that matter. Two teams have already fired their coaches, and I had one of them to be a playoff team, so I can’t even count on my long-standing practice of picking games against the worst teams every week.

Heading into week 11, two teams have two or fewer wins. Only two teams have eight wins. Everybody else is right there in the middle, one big play away from a huge upset or a crushing defeat. The Super Bowl Champs are out already. The Packers are dumpster-bound. Geno Smith and Russell Wilson have spent the entire season turning into each other, “Freaky Friday” style.

So when Dallas loses to Green Bay, or the Bills drop one to the Vikings, or the Raiders go from the playoffs to punchlines, I’m entertained but not surprised. In a season like this, the difference between great and good is a fine line every week. Remember last season when the Bengals got hot and went to the Super Bowl, even though they were the fourth-best team in the AFC? I fully expect something like that to happen again.

My prediction? Of the 14 teams to make the playoffs, 10 of them will have a legitimate chance to make the Super Bowl, and it will all come down to a few plays, turnovers, and weird bounces of the ball. I’ll stay with Baltimore and the 49ers, but I won’t be surprised by anything that happens this season. It’s Thunderdome out there.

Now on to the picks. Last week I went 4-2 straight up, and 3-3 against against the Vegas spread. In my defense, when I have the chance to pick the Raiders to take a crushing defeat, that’s easy money in my book. I’m now 33-27, and 25-33-2 against Vegas. As always, my picks are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Dallas (-1.5) at Minnesota: Mike McCarthy currently has an approval rating somewhere between “old cheese” and “Ticketmaster.”

Pick: Cowboys to win and cover, winning by two or more.

Washington (-3) at Houston: I look forward to the day when Carson Wentz gets the credit he deserves for being a humongous bust.

Pick: Texans to win it outright.

Philadelphia (-7) at Indianapolis: The great Jeff Saturday Experiment is an absolute success, as long as it stops right now.

Pick: Eagles to win and cover, winning by seven or more.

LA Rams (+3.5) at New Orleans: It sure seems like it’s time to start Taysom Hill, and figure out if the Saints quarterback of 2023 is on the roster, or even in the league.

Pick: Saints to win but not cover, winning by three or fewer points.

Las Vegas (+2.5) at Denver: Russell Wilson and his wife Ciara bought a house in Denver with more than twenty-thousand square feet, but only four bedrooms. That seems like the kind of place you buy when you want to throw big parties, but you still don’t want too many family members coming over.

Pick: Raiders to win it outright.

Kansas City (-5) at LA Chargers: After this game, the Chiefs have the easiest schedule I’ve seen since Globo Gym in the 2004 ADAA Vegas Dodgeball Open.

Pick: Chargers to win it outright, just to keep the division interesting.

I’ll also take the Bengals over the Steelers, 49ers over the Cardinals, and the Bills over the Browns in any NFL stadium. Good luck, everybody.

Reid Kerr just realized it’s “No-Shave November,” and not “No-Bathe November,” and now he has quite a few people to apologize to. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.