Commentary — The NFL Mailbag: Cowboys, Coaches, and Super Bowl Predictions

Published 2:31 pm Saturday, December 11, 2021

We’re still digging out from a crazy week here, folks. First, between the weather and the evil genius of Bill Belichick, that run-heavy Patriots-Bills game set football back about 80 years. Then Thursday night, the Steelers and Vikings combined to play a game that was not only exciting, but also made you feel like every single person on the field was about to quit, get fired, or retire during a commercial break.

Time for a quick run through the old mailbag.

Question: Can Dallas win the NFC and get back to the Super Bowl?

Answer: Absolutely. This could be the Cowboys year, finally. And if you’re thinking that’s the kind of sentence that’s normally followed by a “However,” then you are 100% correct.

However, this might be the worst year in recent memory to be in this situation. There’s no one favorite team. The NFC has four top-notch teams, and at least three teams that qualify for the famous “team no one wants to play in the first round of the playoffs” designation. Which means the playoffs are going to be thrilling, but also frustrating for a lot of NFL teams.

And when I think of “frustrating” and “NFL teams,” there’s nobody more firmly in the center of that particular Venn Diagram than the Dallas Cowboys.

Q: Who’s going to be the first coach to get fired?

A: it’s been an odd year so far. With the expanded season and playoffs, there hasn’t been as much rush to dump coaches. The only team to lose their head coach this season has been the Raiders, and reports say they haven’t even started looking yet. That either means they have a precise plan in mind, or they have no idea at all. Based on their record and Mark Davis’ haircut, I’m going to go with the latter.

Firing coaches is like eating potato chips. It starts with one and then just snowballs. Right now, most teams aren’t truly bad, they’re just mediocre. When one team makes the decision, others start to look around and wonder if that first team is about to snatch up their eventual target. I say by the day after the season ends, we have four more head coaching vacancies, starting in Chicago.

Q: Do you actually have a mailbag?

A: No, and I miss those days when I’d actually get letters from people about my sports coverage. Especially because it was easier to turn those directly over to the FBI.

Q: Who’s your Super Bowl pick?

A: Pass.

Q: Oh, come on.

A: I don’t ever remember a year when both sides of the league were this hard to pick. There are no clear favorites, and the only team that’s been consistent is the Houston Texans, who are the only team out of it. Everyone else still has a chance if they get hot at the right time, which means we could still see that Colts-Washington Super Bowl matchup that literally no one dreams about.

I’ll go Green Bay over New England. I’ll also go Detroit, Jacksonville, and Houston for the top three picks in the draft, and I have way more confidence in that one than in my Super Bowl picks.

Now on to the picks. For week 13 I was near-perfect, going 6-0 and 5-1 against the Vegas spread. In my defense, the only thing I got wrong was how badly the Bucs would beat the Falcons, who I thought were still trying. Lesson learned there. I’m now 52-30 on the season and 40-40-1 against Vegas, which means I have finally broken even, and I’m now ready for my infamous end-of-the-season collapse, just like the Raiders. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Dallas (-4.5) at Washington: If the Cowboys win this one, they pretty much have the division wrapped up, so I think we all know what that means.

Pick: Washington to win it outright, and keep the drama alive a little while longer.

Baltimore (+3) at Cleveland: Somehow this is a matchup between two oft-discussed popular young quarterbacks, for two teams who haven’t scored more than 20 points in more than a month.

Pick: Ravens to win it outright.

New Orleans (-5.5) at NY Jets: Taysom Hill has had problems throwing after hurting his middle finger. I know how he feels, when I hurt my middle finger, I couldn’t drive for a month.

Pick: Saints to win and cover, winning by six or more.

Jacksonville (+8.5) at Tennessee: Reports say Jaguars coach Urban Meyer was berating his assistant coaches this week, telling them that he’s a winner, and they’re all losers. Meyer is firmly establishing his credentials as the anti-Ted Lasso.

Pick: Titans to win and cover, winning by nine or more.

Atlanta (+3) at Carolina: In his last game, Cam Newton had the worst statistical day of any quarterback since Joey Harrington in 2004. Or maybe it was Joey Heatherton in 1968. I am obviously not wasting a lot of time doing research on either one of these teams.

Pick: Falcons to win it outright. Please don’t make me watch this game.

Seattle (-8.5) at Houston: The Texans statement this week basically said “Getting beaten 52-14 in the last two weeks is still too close to competitive, so we’re rolling out the rookie quarterback in hopes he maintains our proud history of getting clobbered, and protects our draft picks.”

Pick: Seahawks to win and cover, winning by nine or more

I’ll also take the Chargers over the Giants, Bengals over the 49ers, and “Lethal Weapon” over “It’s A Wonderful Life.” Good luck everybody.

Reid Kerr is never sure what to do with his Saturdays after college football season ends. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.