Reid Kerr

Among football fans, there is nothing more universal than the certainty we feel entering week one of the NFL season. Followed, of course, by the vast overreaction we swerve directly into for week two.

We can’t help it, really. After long months of anticipation, one game is a ridiculously small sample size for us to base our predictions. The first game of this season is, statistically speaking, the least valuable opener ever since it’s just one of 17. But still, that’s all we’ve got.

We always assume the season will start like the last one ended, but that’s definitely not the case. Last year’s playoff teams fall apart, replaced by this year’s up-and-coming teams, which crater and make way for the breakout teams of 2022, and so on. The only constant is change.

My example here of the NFL’s endless-fruitbasket-turnover is the Chicago Bears, who have finished in all four positions of the NFC North over the last four years. In fact, two of the last three seasons they somehow made the playoffs, in spite of the fact that none of us have any memory of those games happening.

After week one, we can just comfort ourselves that a lot of things probably won’t happen again. I don’t expect to see Green Bay lose like that. Derrick Henry won’t have another half of football where he only outgains me by eight yards. Dallas isn’t going to forget Ezekiel Elliott exists again. The Raiders can’t count on miracles every week. Kyler Murray isn’t going to be able to save Kliff Kingsbury’s job all season. And the Texans only get to play Urban Meyer’s team one more time this year.

Starting in week two, the league starts to level out and we can really figure out how things will go this season. And of course, make our predictions accordingly.

Now on to the picks. After week one, I went 3-3, and 2-3-1 against the Vegas spread. In my defense, I overestimated Urban Meyer, just like everyone else did a year ago. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Dallas (plus 3.5) at LA Chargers: This will be the first real home game for the Chargers, giving the team a chance to finally play in front of a full crowd of Los Angeles fans all staring at their phones.

Pick: Chargers to win but not cover, winning by three or less.

Houston (plus 12.5) at Cleveland: Last week’s fourth quarter mishap makes this a good time to remind everyone there’s a reason why the Browns haven’t won a season opener since the debut of “Desperate Housewives.”

Pick: Browns to win and cover, winning by 13 or more.

San Francisco (minus 3) at Philadelphia: Way to set the tone, Jimmy Garropolo. Getting to the Super Bowl might make you a star, but fumbling the opening snap of the season makes you a legend.

Pick: Eagles to win it outright.

New Orleans (minus 3.5) at Carolina: If Sean Payton actually got Jameis Winston to stop throwing interceptions, then he is truly the Quarterback Whisperer.

Pick: Saints to win and cover, winning by four or more.

Detroit (plus 3.5) at Green Bay: We may all disagree on what happened with the Packers last week, but I think we all agree that it’s weird Aaron Rodgers has suddenly chosen to look like a guy who makes his living stealing copper wiring.

Pick: Packers to win and cover, winning by four or more.

Kansas City (minus 3.5) at Baltimore: The NFL really wants this to be the new big quarterback rivalry, but Lamar Jackson has never beaten Patrick Mahomes. That’s like saying it’s a “rivalry” between me and that raccoon that keeps getting into my shed. Except it’s possible Jackson will eventually win, whereas my wife has already laid money down I will never outsmart that little bandit.

Pick: Chiefs to win but not cover, winning by three or less.

I’ll also take the Pats over the Jets, Broncos over the Jaguars, and the Monday Night Football crew over the Manning Brothers simulcast. Good luck, everybody.

Reid Kerr was impressed by just how hard the Giants had to work to lose that Thursday game to Washington. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.