Reid Kerr says: The Overreaction: The Dallas Cowboys looked like a Super Bowl team against the Giants. The Reality: The Giants are a football pop-up tent, just waiting to fold at the first opportunity. Still, Dallas looked great running Kellen Moore’s offense and spreading the ball around, and the soft schedule to open the season really helps. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)

To say that week one of the NFL season was strange is somehow both an understatement and an overreaction. It’s always a mystery. After one week, the rushing leader is Marlon Mack, the passing leader is Andy Dalton, and the pass receptions leader is someone from the Jets. As the commercials say, past performances do not indicate future results.

The NFL is a hard league to estimate, especially when weird things happen like the worst team in football starting the season with a tie for two years in a row. I’d guess the top five are the Pats, Chiefs, Cowboys, Saints and Vikings. My bottom three are the Dolphins, Giants and Redskins, but only because I can’t pick Miami three times. One game, though, is a very small sample size when it comes to making predictions, so it becomes important to separate the overreactions from the reality.

The Overreaction: The Dallas Cowboys looked like a Super Bowl team against the Giants.

The Reality: The Giants are a football pop-up tent, just waiting to fold at the first opportunity. Still, Dallas looked great running Kellen Moore’s offense and spreading the ball around, and the soft schedule to open the season really helps.

The Overreaction: The Texans looked better than we expected against the Saints.

The Reality: It’s the first game, and they let Deshaun Watson get sacked a league-high six times. At that pace, he’ll be in a coma by Thanksgiving, and all “David-Carr’ed” out in two years.

The Overreaction: The Browns are still the old Browns.

The Reality: They’re a lot better than that, but this is still a young team that’s going to have to learn how to win, and keep their mouths shut while doing so. Everybody loves Baker Mayfield when he’s torching defenses and saying he “woke up dangerous,” but watching him sulk through a press conference after the Titans pick him off three times isn’t going to help him get any more endorsement deals.

The Overreaction: Lamar Jackson looks like an MVP candidate.

The Reality: Playing against Miami, everyone will. Your fantasy football league may come down to whoever has the most players who play against Miami in weeks 15 and 16. But Jackson still looks legit.

The Overreaction: The Patriots are going to win the Super Bowl because they signed Antonio Brown.

The Reality: They don’t need him to do that, at least not the way they destroyed Pittsburgh. Part of me thinks they just wanted to sign him so he didn’t end up with another playoff contender. I’d be surprised if the Patriots release him this season.

On to the picks. In week one, I went 6-0-1 picking games, and 5-2 against Las Vegas. I was admittedly lucky, although I failed to remember that the Lions will always be the Lions. Here’s the picks for week two. As always, these are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Dallas (minus 6) at Washington: I am firmly in favor of term limits in Washington, if only for Dan Snyder.

Pick: Cowboys to win but Washington to cover, which means I think Dallas will win by less than six points.

Jacksonville (plus 8.5) at Houston: After one week, Houston leads the NFL in sacks allowed, frustration, and bruises.

Pick: Texans to win but not cover, winning by eight or less.

New Orleans (plus 2) at LA Rams: The over/under on this broadcast for mentions of the NFC Championship game is 143.

Pick: Saints to win it outright.

Kansas City (minus 7) at Oakland: Raiders fans were cheering and chanting about Antonio Brown during last week’s win for a team about to leave town. I can’t tell if that’s irony or stupidity, or possibly Stockholm Syndrome.

Pick: Chiefs to win and cover.

Minnesota (plus 2.5) at Green Bay: In week one the Vikings realized the best way to win with Kirk Cousins is a gameplan where you only let him throw it 10 times, and you run the ball like it’s the 1946 Army-Notre Dame game.

Pick: Vikings to win it outright.

Cleveland (minus 6.5) at NY Jets: Here’s your Monday night matchup, ESPN. On one side, a team who got one player ejected last week for a karate kick to the face, and another who got two roughing-the-passer calls and an offsides all on the same drive. Facing them will be a team that just gave up a 16-point lead in the third quarter, then lost their quarterback to mono.

Pick: Browns to win by seven or more, and Gregg Williams to get at least a dozen camera shots of him on the sidelines.

I’ll also take the Eagles over the Falcons, the 49ers-Bengals game to go under 46 points, and NBC’s “Superstore” to be underrated. Good luck, everybody.

Reid Kerr can’t believe one of the biggest stories of the week was about a horse failing a drug test last year, and he really doesn’t like sports like horse racing or cycling where it becomes important to hold on to bodily fluids for years. Reid’s second book, “I Hate It Here: A Love Story,” is out now on Amazon.com. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.