FANTASY: Your 1st/2nd round WR is only as good as his QB
Published 11:10 pm Tuesday, October 18, 2016
- New York Giants' Trevin Wade breaks up a pass intended for Green Bay Packers' Jordy Nelson during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 9, 2016, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Matt Ludtke)
A NFL team is only as good as its quarterback. A similar rule could be applied to your fantasy football team, only with an alteration: your fantasy receivers, tight ends, and sometimes running backs are only as good as their quarterback.
I am going to give you a list of three receivers’ production for the past three weeks and choose which ones you would rather own:
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List A – Jordy Nelson, Green Bay; Jarvis Landry, Miami; DeAndre Hopkins, Houston
List B – Cole Beasley, Dallas; Cameron Meredith, Chicago; Kenny Britt, Los Angeles
List A of course right? Every one of those receivers were taken in the first three rounds of your draft this season.
Well, maybe not.
If you take the average production of Nelson (played two games because of bye), Landry and Hopkins it comes to:
Nelson: 4.5 receptions for 53 yards and .5 TDs per game
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Landry: 5 receptions for 60 yards and 0 TDs per game
Hopkins: 5 receptions for 43.6 yards and .33 TDS per game
Now, take a look at List B:
Beasley: 4.5 receptions for 59 yards and 1 TD per game
Meredith: 8 receptions for 90.3 yards and .33 TDs per game
Britt: 5 receptions for 97.6 yards and .67 TDs per game
Basically, if you started Nelson, Landry or Hopkins the past three weeks, you received little to nothing in a standard league and minimal point production in a PPR. You probably won your week in either standard or PPR with the receivers from List B.
And it all comes down to quarterback play and opportunity.
The QBs for List A have been struggling – period. In the past three weeks, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill and Brock Osweiler COMBINED have thrown 9 TD passes and averaged 276, 235 and 210 yards, respectively per game. Those numbers are pedestrian as far as fantasy, and that makes each of those quarterbacks’ No. 1 receiving options – Nelson, Landry and Hopkins – pedestrian along with them.
List B’s receivers are benefitting from their QBs slinging it. At the start of the year, Dak Prescott, Brian Hoyer and Case Keenum were not your first or maybe second choice for fantasy QBs, but in the past three weeks, those three guys have combined for 15 passing TDs.
Hoyer has thrown for 300 yards or more in his past four games, which now makes Meredith a borderline WR1 based on his production, especially if he and Hoyer keep this up.
On the flip side, Rodgers struggles have affected Nelson, who traditionally is a big play waiting to happen and always good for 75 yards and at least a touchdown. He could recover, but only if Rodgers starts playing better.
Britt is Case Keenum’s favorite target and he continues to not just be a big-play only threat like in previous years. He is averaging six targets per game, which you could live with if he continues to produce like last week’s 7 catches for 136 yards and 2 TDs.
These are three receivers to target in trades or add/drop currently because they are benefitting from great quarterback play
1. Amari Cooper, Oakland – Has 31 targets and 21 catches in the past three weeks with 315 yards.
2. Julio Jones, Atlanta – Of course. Even going against Seattle last week, Matt Ryan and Jones were unstoppable. In just the past three weeks, which were against Carolina, Denver and Seattle, Jones has 21 catches for 468 yards and 2 TDs.
3. A.J. Green, Cincinnati – It is always nice when the top-tier receivers you draft are receiving good quarterback play. Green is averaging nearly 7 catches and 100 yards per game.
These are three receivers to be anxious about because of quarterback play:
1. Allen Robinson, Jacksonville – The Jags playmaker has underperformed his second-round draft position this season because his quarterback, Blake Bortles, is struggling. He could always turn it around (I hope he does because I traded for him in a league as a buy-low), but it depends on Bortles.
2. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh – Yes, I am serious. Brown has been kind of up and down in production this season. He is scoring touchdowns, or else it would be more noticeable. That was with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. Big Ben’s injury and surgery means backup Landry Jones is under center. In his two starts last year because of an injured Roethlisberger, Brown finished with 3 catches for 24 yards in his first game – but also 6 catches for 124 in his second game. Hopefully owners receive the game 2 production.
3. Demaryius Thomas, Denver – The Broncos wideout has been average at best in the past two weeks (5-45, TD; 5-35) despite two really good matchups on paper. That is because his quarterbacks (Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch) have not played well. This could be a potential sell high while you have the chance player.
Who to Add?
Running Backs: I hate the Miami Dolphins backfield, but when a player goes for over 200 yards and scored 2 TDs, you have to include him and Jay Ajayi could still be on several waiver wires. Knile Davis was traded to the Green Bay Packers because it looks like Eddie Lacy’s injury is more serious than previously thought. He may slide into the No. 1 running back role for the next couple weeks. James White is probably still not available, but if he is, pick up the New England pass-catching back.
Wide Receivers: I struggle with trusting receivers from either the Los Angeles Rams or the Tennessee Titans, but Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright were fantastic last week and will be in line for more production as their team’s top receiving option. Remember Cleveland Browns receiver Corey Coleman? He is coming back soon from injury and should slot right into the No. 1 receiver spot for the Browns, especially with Terrelle Pryor suffering an injury last week. If someone dropped Donte Moncrief of Indianapolis because they were frustrated with him being injured and didn’t want to wait, go get him now. This guy is a borderline No. 1 receiver when healthy and he could be back as early as next week.
Tight Ends: Houston QB Osweiler loves C.J. Fiedorowicz, who caught 6 passes for 85 yards and a TD last week. Hunter Henry of San Diego should already be owned everywhere, and if he’s available in your league, go pick him up. Jack Doyle of Indianapolis gains even more value because of an injury to other Colts tight end Dwayne Allen. Doyle because the No. 2-3 option for Andrew Luck.
Quarterback: In smaller leagues that don’t need to roster two quarterbacks Marcus Mariota could be available. He was sub par after a great opening week, but is coming off back-to-back weeks in which he’s thrown 3 TDs. Bryan Hoyer needs to be on rosters and really could be started right now. The Bears QB has passed for 300 yards or more four straight weeks. You’d take that production from a waiver-wire addition.
Who has Week 7 matchups to exploit?
Running Backs: There are now six weeks’ worth of statistical research to comb through when making this suggestions and one team that is struggling to stop running backs in recent weeks is San Francisco. The 49ers have been hit with a lot of injuries and ball carriers are taking advantage with the 49ers allowing 575 yards and 7 TDs in their past three games. If healthy, Doug Martin of Tampa Bay could be the next back to exploit this but don’t discount Jacquizz Rodgers if Martin can’t go. The Saints continue to struggle with containing RBs also and that is good news for Kansas City and Jamaal Charles/Spencer Ware owners, who both could get into the end zone this week.
Wide Receivers: Ask Odell Beckham Jr. how healthy you can get against the Baltimore Ravens secondary. The Ravens have allowed 12 receiving TDs in the past 5 weeks, which means New York Jets Brandon Marshall could be in for a big day, if his quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick throws the ball to the right team. Speaking of ODB and is on-again/off-again love affair with a kicking net, the New York Giants face a Los Angeles Rams secondary this week that has allowed 200 yards receiving and 1.6 TDs in its past five games. The 49ers secondary has struggled against the run, but also against the pass, which means Mike Evans of Tampa Bay is a safe bet for at least one touchdown to go with 70 yards receiving. Cameron Meredith/Alshon Jeffrey of Chicago get a Green Bay secondary that has allowed 763 yards and eight touchdowns in their past four outings.
Tight Ends: By a large margin, the Cleveland Browns are giving up the most points to tight ends. This would be great news for Tyler Eifert if he was healthy, but he isn’t so Tyler Kroft and C.J. Uzomah would be the beneficiaries and make for sneaky daily fantasy plays because they will not cost much. The Bengals are not great against the tight end position either, which makes Gary Barnidge a decent option with Julius Thomas of Jacksonville may be able to take advantage of an Oakland defense surrendering 419 yards receiving to the position over the past five weeks.
Quarterback: The Browns have been torched in recent weeks by Tom Brady and Marcus Mariotta. I foresee Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton going for over 300 yards and 2 TDs. Another defense that even made Case Keenum look good last week is Detroit, which has allowed 12 TDs in its past five games. Kirk Cousins of the Redskins will be the next two take advantage.
How did my teams do?
Everything comes to an end and my perfect run came to a screeching halt because of Odell Beckham’s breakout performance. I actually faced him in two leagues and was able to overcome it in ESPN because of Tom Brady and Golden Tate, but that was not the case in CBSSports.com where I was pummeled by over 50 points to drop to 4-2. I kept on rolling in Yahoo.com, thanks to LeSean McCoy. So now I am 6-0 in ESPN, 5-1 in Yahoo.com and 4-2 in CBSSports.com.
Good Luck in Week 7.
Chris Parry is a staff writer for the Tyler Morning Telegraph and ETFinalScore.com, and an avid fantasy football player for nearly two decades. His weekly fantasy takeaway appears on Wednesdays. Feel free to email with any questions or comments to or you can tweet to @CParryETFS.