FANTASY: Pay for the present and future and not the past
Published 11:15 pm Tuesday, October 11, 2016
- New England Patriots tight end Martellus Bennett celebrates a touchdown catch against the Cleveland Browns in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 9, 2016, in Cleveland. Bennett had a huge day, but will this be a one-off? Do you trust him going forward in fantasy or sell now when his vaule is the highest? (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
We all do it. I have been the perpetrator of this fantasy football crime more than a few times in my years of doing this.
It’s called putting too much stock in what just happened. In our need-it-now, 15-minute news cycle type of world, the in-thing is the most important.
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If a receiver went off for 10 catches for over 100 yards and a touchdown, we need to pick him up now! Conversely, if a receiver who two weeks ago was considered a good Add has delivered consecutive weeks of subpar totals, he needs to be dropped now!
My advice, and this also goes for myself, is to pump the breaks a little.
Do not pay for what has happened.
This is so important in fantasy football; I feel I need to repeat it: Do not pay for what has happened.
Many years ago, Santana Moss delivered a three-touchdown performance with two of those scores going for 50-yards or more. It equaled a 45 point effort for that owner’s team in a PPR league I was playing in. I went and looked at Moss’ weekly totals and they weren’t spectacular, but in my mind, if he did this that week, just think about what he could provide me going forward.
I had to have him. I offered his owner an obscene trade of my No. 2 running back and No. 2 receiver and I think I threw in a kicker for Moss.
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Moss did not come close to reaching that 45-point total the rest of the way while the players I traded helped that owner go deep in the playoffs whereas my team scratched and clawed its way to the postseason only for Moss to deliver nothing in Week 1 of my playoffs and I was out.
That owner did the perfect thing in fantasy: sell high.
I was paying for what Moss had just delivered and it would up costing me in the end.
These are some of the top performances from this past week in fantasy:
Quarterback: Brian Hoyer, Chicago, 397 yards, 2 TDs
Running Backs: Jacquizz Rodgers, Tampa Bay, 30 for 101 yards; Cameron Artis-Payne 18 for 85, 2 TDs; Jordan Howard 16 for 118
Wide Receivers: Sammie Coates, Pittsburgh, 6 for 139, 2 TDs; Cameron Meredith, Chicago, 9 for 130, 1 TD; Adam Thielen, Minnesota, 7 for 117, TD; Chris Hogan, 4 for 114; Brandon LaFell, Cincinnati, 8 for 68, 2 TDs
Tight End: Martellus Bennett, New England, 6 for 67, 3 TDs
Of all these players, I would say one (Howard) is worth trading for and three (Meredith/Coates/Bennett) are worth a waiver-wire add.
The reason why is really simple.
This is the best week that the majority of players listed above will have the rest of the season. Kind of like how a car loses value as soon as you drive it off the lot, these players lose value from this point because you have already seen their ceiling and you weren’t a part of it. Those points are gone. What you get after acquiring them is potential for something close to it.
Now, if you feel that for instance, Howard is going to threaten 100 yards rushing in every game the rest of the way and Meredith could be the Bears No. 2 receiver from this point forward, so both are worth trying to acquire. Just don’t give up the farm to get them.
Conversely, owners who enjoyed Minnesota third-string running back Matt Asiata’s 55 yards and a touchdown; Detroit receiving back Theo Riddick’s two touchdowns and 82 total yards; Bennett’s huge day in Tom Brady’s return against Cleveland need to prepare themselves that it might not happen again.
It’s time to sell high.
If you want to try and buy those players, that’s fine, just be mindful that you are paying for the past and not the present and future.
FYI: Week 6 byes are Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Week 7 byes being Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys
ABW (Always Be Working) Report For Week 7
Who to Add?
Running Backs: It is never advisable to trust Bill Belichick when choosing fantasy players because each game’s strategy is game-specific. That said, James White needs to be on fantasy rosters in PPR (point per reception) leagues now that Tom Brady is back under center. In Brady’s first game back, White, had six receiving targets to finish with four catches and 63 yards. He is going to be a lock for 10+ fantasy points in PPR leagues every week. Giovani Bernard may have been dropped by an impatient owner in your league, and if so, he needs to be added now. Bernard totaled 96 yards rushing and receiving against Dallas and will be leaned on heavily until Jeremy Hill is completely healthy. Bobby Rainey from the New York Giants is kind of going unnoticed, but he did deliver six catches for 52 yards last week, which is nice production in a PPR league. As for standard-league production, you want to look for touchdowns and Miami Dolphins’ Jay Ajayi has TDs in his last two games. He’s not the ideal subject, but could be available off the waiver-wire.
Wide Receivers: Everyone in your league is vying for Sammie Coates from Pittsburgh right now, so you probably should too. He is the deep threat for the Steelers, but you lose out on him, don’t be mad to settle for Cameron Meredith who I think will produce more fantasy points of the two going forward. Chris Hogan of New England is like Coates in that he is the deep threat for the Patriots. Another player to look at is Jeremy Kerley of San Francisco, who continues to be the main option in the passing game, although that could change with Colin Kaepernick now the starter.
Quarterbacks: When you throw for 300 or more yards and multiple touchdowns in your first three starts, you get noticed. Brian Hoyer of Chicago has done that without a single interception! For those of you willing to roll the dice on Colin Kaepernick he seems perfect for Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense and provides rushing yardage as well as passing yardage.
Tight End: Go grab these two injured tight ends now while you still have the chance: Tyler Eifert from Cincinnati and Ladarius Green from Pittsburgh. Both will be Top 5 producers once they return to the lineup. For Eifert, that could be as soon as this week against the Patriots with Green coming back potentially in Week 7.
Who has Week 6 matchups to exploit?
Running Backs: The Buffalo Bills stay on the West Coast and LeSean McCoy is hoping for more of the same against a San Francisco 49ers rush defense that has allowed 478 yards and 5 touchdowns in its past three weeks. He would be my top option in daily fantasy for running backs too. The Redskins were better last week against Baltimore, but this season have been very good for running backs, which is good news for Philadelphia’s Ryan Matthews/Darren Sproles. If Matthews is healthy enough to start, 75 yards and a touchdown is not out of the question. Sproles could also be in for a big day and for daily fans, I may play McCoy and Sproles as my running backs in at least one Draft Kings lineup.
Wide Receivers: So, who gets to take advantage of the New York Jets secondary this week? Arizona, which means Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown/Michael Floyd especially are ones to target if Carson Palmer plays as is expected. Another receiver to not lose hope on and expect a big game from is Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins who gets an Indianapolis defense that just got torched by Brian Hoyer and Cameron Meredith. Any opponent of the Oakland Raiders each week is a good bet, which means Kansas City’s Jeremy Maclin could be in for a nice afternoon and finally any and every No. 1 and No. 2 receiving in the Panthers and Saints game. This Superdome has become the scoring Mecca of fantasy football, which means Carolina’s Kelvin Benjamin and New Orleans’ Brandon Cooks and Willie Snead are must plays.
Quarterbacks: The first two are obvious and should be inserted without hesitation: Drew Brees and Cam Newton. This is a Saints home game, which means points will be scored at an alarming rate and you want to take advantage. Now for the not so obvious quarterbacks, those of you who are hurting with bye weeks are want to take a chance should look at Kansas City’s Alex Smith, who goes against an Oakland pass defense allowing a league-worst 1,690 yards passing and 12 touchdowns. Carson Palmer should also be able to go off against the N.Y. Jets pass defense giving up 1,599 yards and 12 TDs. Seattle’s Russell Wilson is also one to target. Atlanta played well last week at Denver, but still is giving up the second-most passing yards in the league and is tied for surrendering the most touchdowns with 14.
Tight Ends: Book it, Carolina’s Greg Olsen will out produce New England’s Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett combined this week. New Orleans has been good against the tight end this year too. This is just a feeling I have that you can trust or not. As for matchups, the worst team in the league against the tight end position is Cleveland, which means Delanie Walker of Tennessee should have a very good Sunday. Another team that struggles against the tight end is Atlanta, which have allowed 340 yards and 5 touchdowns. That could be great news for Seattle’s Jimmy Graham, who could also be in line for a big day.
How did my teams do?
What can I say? I am on a roll right now. I have gone 9-0 in my three leagues the past three weeks, something I can say has never happened before. In my ESPN PPR and Yahoo Standard, I welcomed back Tom Brady with open arms and he delivered. In my CBSSports.com PPR league, it’s been steady production from throughout the lineup. I enter this week with 4-1 records in Yahoo and CBS and 5-0 in ESPN. Let’s keep it going.
Good luck in Week 6.
Chris Parry is a staff writer for the Tyler Morning Telegraph and ETFinalScore.com, and an avid fantasy football player for nearly two decades. His weekly fantasy takeaway appears on Wednesdays. Feel free to email with any questions or comments to cparry@tylerpaper.com or you can tweet to @CParryETFS.