Here is the key to the GOP primary puzzle

Published 7:27 pm Wednesday, February 24, 2016

The 2008 Republican National Convention. AP.

Here’s the bad news: We don’t have national primaries; we do primaries by state and – in Texas – by congressional district. Here’s the good news: We don’t have national primaries; we do primaries by state and – in Texas – by congressional district.

In other words, what we think of as a simple process is anything but. Still, that complexity is why our votes really matter.

On March 1, Texas will join with 13 other states (and American Samoa) for Super Tuesday, also known as the SEC Primary (named after the college athletic division in the South).

Some of the states are “winner take all.” Most, including Texas, are “winner take some.”

In the hotly contested Republican primary, there are 155 delegates to dole out. It takes 1,237 to win, so Texas constitutes a pretty sizable chunk.



But those 155 delegates probably won’t all go to one candidate. Instead, most will be allocated based on the vote totals in each congressional district.

Here’s how it works. Each district has three delegates. If one candidate wins a congressional district by more than 50 percent of the vote, all three go to that candidate. If there’s not a majority for one candidate, but one or more candidate wins 20 percent of the vote total, then two of the delegates go to the No. 1 candidate, and one delegate goes to the No. 2 delegate.

If no candidate breaks 20 percent, then the top three candidates get one delegate each.

What does that look like for us? Tyler and much of East Texas is in House District 1 (the seat held by Congressman Louie Gohmert). Chances are that HD 1 – like the rest of the state – will be a battle between Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.

If Cruz wins HD1 with more than 50 percent of the votes, he wins all three delegates. But if Trump (or Sen. Marco Rubio) chips away at Cruz’s lead and prevents him from getting an outright majority, Cruz will win two of the three delegates, and the second-place candidate will get the other one.

Now, that applies to most of the 155 delegates Texas will award on March 1. But not all. There are 47 at-large delegates (sometimes called superdelegates) that will be awarded based on the statewide vote.

Assuming it’s going to be a battle between Cruz and Trump (and to a lesser degree Rubio), as the polls show, then it will depend on how they each fare statewide. If any candidate wins a majority of Texas votes, then all 47 will go to that candidate.

But polls say that’s unlikely. It’s more probable that Cruz will beat Trump and Rubio, but not with a clear majority. In that event, the superdelegates will be divided among the top three finishers.

The real point here is that this complexity is good, because it rewards voter participation. Just a few votes in a congressional district can have an influence on the all-important delegate count.

Take the time to vote early (that ends Friday) or on Election Day.