Here’s some good news for the New Year: As political pollster and analyst Scott Rasmussen points out helpfully, the experts are going to be wrong.

That’s heartening because all too often at this time of year, we hear projections and prognostications – and many of them will be negative.

Here’s what the financial website Marketwatch.com says: “Wall Street’s 2016 forecast: Worse than 2015.”

It goes on to say, “Many Wall Street strategists are dusting off their 2015 targets for the S&P 500 Index and trimming them for 2016.”

It all sounds pretty dreary, doesn’t it? That’s not even taking into account the predictions of an ugly year in electoral politics.

But here’s what Rasmussen has to say: “We’re in a season when experts and pundits like to make predictions about what will happen next year. But an interesting column found at Marketwatch.com casts doubt on the value of those predictions. ‘Stocks that were recommended most highly at the start of 2015 by the highly trained, highly educated, highly paid experts on Wall Street did worse this year than a bunch of stocks picked at random.'”

Those stock picks did even worse, he adds, than a set of stocks that the experts say to avoid in 2015.

The real point Rasmussen makes is that skepticism is good.

“The reason is not because the experts are stupid. It’s just that in a nation of more than 300 million people, there are far too many variables for any one person to predict… Consider the 2016 presidential race as a great example. Nobody really has any idea who will win at this point. Political experts weigh all the things that they believe are important – demographics, money, connections, etc. A year ago, these same things led many to believe Jeb Bush was the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination.”

Still, Rasmussen doesn’t go far enough. It’s not just that we can’t know what will happen in the coming year in presidential politics or global finance. It’s that our focus should really be elsewhere when we consider what the coming year will bring.

What determines whether 2016 is a good year or a bad year, for most of us, will be things much closer to home. Are our families well? Are our relationships sound?

Of course the bigger picture does play a part. Many local families are affected by the downturn in oil prices – a global phenomenon. And the presidential race will have some pretty important implications for the future of the nation.

But by and large, our real concerns are much more localized. Let’s pay closer attention to these matters, and worry less about things far-off.

A final thought. As G.K. Chesterton asked in “The Ballad of the White Horse,” “Do you have joy without a cause, yea, faith without a hope?”

In the end, the quality of our lives is not determined by politics and macro-economics. It’s determined by something far more lasting.

Every New Year is a brand new story. And that story has an Author.