1. Carson and Trump have until March to launch third-party runs
2. AP FACT CHECK: Where Republican debaters went astray

Here’s the thing to remember about those polls that continue to show Donald Trump on top of the Republican pack in the presidential primary race – polls mean little, particularly this far out.

Here’s why.

First, most of the polls are national polls. But we don’t vote nationally in the primaries. We vote as states. Often a party’s nominee is chosen before everyone has even had a chance to vote. That’s because candidates win a party’s nomination by collecting delegates, awarded by states.

CBS’s poll on Thursday, for example, was a national phone poll.

“Thirty-five percent of Republican primary voters support Trump, up 13 points since October, and his highest level of support in CBS News polling,” CBS reported. “Ted Cruz (16 percent) has moved into second place, while Ben Carson, who led the October poll, has dropped to third. Marco Rubio is in fourth place with 9 percent. Jeb Bush is getting the backing of just 3 percent of Republican primary voters nationwide, his lowest percentage to date in CBS News polling. Carly Fiorina’s support has also dropped; she is at just 1 percent now.”

But let’s look at that poll more closely. CBS questioned about 1,250 people, chosen at random. Of these, about 1,000 were actually registered voters, and only 431 identified themselves as “likely” Republican primary voters.

Are they really likely to go vote in their state’s primaries? Maybe. Pollsters have no way of knowing.

That’s a pretty small sample, really, to get a handle on how the estimated 30 million Americans who consider themselves Republicans.

Aside from sample size, there’s an engagement issue. The vast majority of people simply aren’t thinking much about politics right now. They’re focused on eating up the Thanksgiving leftovers in time to clear out the refrigerator for Christmas. They’re wondering what they’ll do to keep their kids entertained during the long winter break. They’re worrying about that little squeal they hear when the come to a stop, and wondering what a brake job would do to their budgets.

In other words, the presidential primary races aren’t a big part of their lives right now. Most people are only vaguely aware of the primaries. They might have watched a debate or two, but it’s not a pressing concern.

That’s a big part of why Trump is still doing well – in the polls, at least. Republican voters aren’t paying a whole lot of attention. When they start to, his numbers will drop. GOP voters are looking for a conservative, and Trump just isn’t one.

A much better way to get a handle on the real Republican race is to look at the early voting states. You can look at the polls – they’re better than national polls. In Iowa, for example, Ted Cruz has taken the lead from Trump. But even with state-level polls, there are sample size and engagement issues.

To really gauge how a race is progressing, though, there’s only one reliable indicator – organization. The ground game is what counts.

We predict that Donald Trump will soon learn that.