PARRY: Is there such a thing as must-start fantasy RB anymore?

Published 10:41 pm Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson cruises past Atlanta Falcons safety William Moore into the endzone for a touchdown during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game on Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015, in Atlanta. After last week's 8 carry for 18 yard performance, even Peterson is no longer a sure thing for fantasy production. (Curtis Compton/Atlanta-Journal Constitution via AP) MARIETTA DAILY OUT, GWINNETT DAILY POST OUT, LOCAL TV OUT (WXIA, WGCL, FOX 5)

There was a time not so long ago, just five years ago in fact, when fantasy owners could feel safe and secure about the running back position.

Guys like LaDainian Tomlinson, Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Priest Holmes, Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James won you fantasy titles.

There was no question of whether or not you played them. Unless it was a bye week or they got injured, they were every-week starters without ever spending a second thinking about it.

As we enter the fantasy playoffs for many leagues, check out this list of current Top 10 running backs and who they are facing this week:

1. Devonta Freeman, Atlanta (at Carolina)



2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota (at Arizona)

3. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay (vs. New Orleans)

4. Chris Ivory, N.Y. Jets (vs. Tennessee)

5. Lamar Miller, Miami (vs. N.Y. Giants)

6. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina (vs. Atlanta)

7. LeSean McCoy, Buffalo (vs. Philadelphia)

8. Todd Gurley, St. Louis (vs. Detroit)

9. Latavius Murray, Oakland (at Denver)

10. DeAngelo Williams (at Cincinnati)

These 10 running backs have produced the most fantasy points at the position this season.

The playoffs in most leagues mean one and done, so with your team’s fantasy hopes on the line, how many of these 10 would you trust as a must-start this week?

My answer is five. If I owned any of these running backs, the only five I would feel sure as must-starts are Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, LeSean McCoy, Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.

The only reason I chose only five has nothing to do with their offensive line, receiving skills, turnovers or touchdowns scored.

It is playoff time and all of that is wiped away. No, these five were selected because of their matchups. That, and opportunity. In 2015, fantasy football running back production is all about the matchups and opportunity.

No longer can you guarantee seeing your stud running back receiving 20-25 carries per game, which would equal solid production with potential breakout status.

Running back-by-committee is all the rage. It’s all about splitting up the carries, so teams are not beholden to one bell-cow back.

The 10 players listed above are a select few that are not engulfed in a RBBC. But even with that, look at the number of carries each one had last week: Freeman (14), Peterson (eight), Martin (25), Ivory (10), Miller (20), Stewart (21), McCoy (21), Gurley (nine), Murray (86) and Williams (26).

Notice what all five of the runners I chose for this week as must-starts have in common?

Every one received 20 or more carries last week and play a forgiving rushing defense this week because it’s not just about opportunities. If you are running into a brick wall (like the Arizona Cardinals or Carolina Panthers, who give up 65.4 and 69.7 yards rushing, respectively, per game) it doesn’t matter how many attempts you get, the result is probably going to be the same.

Now, I am not saying to bench Devonta Freeman or Adrian Peterson this week. Just be prepared for a less-than-satisfactory return.

If you are looking at possible one-week alternatives, focus on the matchups. Here are a couple options:

Shaun Draughn, San Francisco (at Cleveland) – The Browns have the worst rush defense in the NFL, allowing 128 yards per game. The Browns have been better in recent weeks, but with Johnny Manziel against Blaine Gabbert, this promises to be a 17-10 matchup with a lot of production from Draughn, who has posted a combined 124 yards rushing and 125 receiving against some tough matchups at Seattle and against Arizona. He should be able to do even more this week against Cleveland.

Chris Polk, Houston (vs. New England) – Polk is more of a receiving back for the Texans, who could be trailing against Tom Brady and Co. and will need to check it down in the passing game. Even without that, the Patriots have given up a combined 397 yards rushing and four touchdowns in their past three games.

T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville (vs. Indianapolis) – All of the talk for the Jaguars is about their passing game and Allen Robinson, but Yeldon also is producing and gets a great matchup against a Colts rush defense that’s allowed 114.6 average in its last three games.

To continue reading, go to ETFinalScore.com.

 

Pick These Guys Up For Week 14

Quarterback: Johnny Manziel, Cleveland – Scoff all you want, but Johnny Football is facing a San Francisco 49ers defense that struggles to stop the run. Manziel is a running quarterback. Do the math. This pickup comes with a warning. Manziel is only usable this Sunday as his next two matchups are at Seattle and at Kansas City.

Running Back: C.J. Spiller, New Orleans – An early Merry Christmas to any owner desperate for a running back. Spiller should be available and he is now the starter due to Mark Ingram (who would’ve been in our Top 10 backs of the season list) placed on injured reserve on Wednesday. If he’s out there, go get him.

Wide Receiver/Tight End: Zach Miller, Chicago – Just like with Spiller, Miller is receiving his chance due to a recent injury to the starter. Martellus Bennett was placed on IR, which puts Miller in play as a solid target for Bears quarterback Jay Cutler.

 

Start These Guys In Week 14

These are not the obvious starts, but under-the-radar guys who I think can take advantage of a favorable matchup. Whether they end up doing it is another story.

Quarterback: Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay (vs. New Orleans) – It’s Winston’s turn to take advantage of the Saints’ awful defense. Last week Cam Newton threw five touchdowns against it. Winston put up an efficient 207 yards and one touchdown in Week 2, but now the rookie is more seasoned and has all of his weapons (Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins) healthy. Expect a big day for Winston. (Last Week’s Pick: Tennessee’s Marcos Mariota passed for 268 yards and three TDs and rushed for 112 yards and a TD).

Running Back: LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills (at Philadelphia) – This one has the revenge factor of McCoy wanting to show up Chip Kelly while also damage the Eagles’ playoff hopes. It also helps that Philadelphia has the worst rushing defense in the NFL. (Last Week’s Pick: San Francisco’s Shaun Draughn produced 86 total yards and a touchdown with five receptions.)

Wide Receiver: Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee (at N.Y. Jets) – The Jets pass defense is not what it was now that Darrelle Revis is hurt and teams are finding that out. The Jets have given up a combined 639 yards and six touchdowns in their last three games. Beckham finally had his breakout game last week with 119 yards and a TD and he should be solid again this week. (Last Week’s Pick: Indianapolis’ Donte Moncrief represents one of the worst “starts” of the 2015 season. Despite a great matchup in a game against a porous pass defense and coming off eight catches for 114 yards the previous week, Moncrief had one target for one reception for 33 yards. I say stay away until further notice.)

 

How Did My Fantasy Teams Do In Week 13?

Both the Last Action Heroes and Fantasy Derelicts enjoyed winning closes to the regular season. The journey is over the Derelicts whereas LAH finished as division winner and top point producer with a No. 2 seed in the playoffs. LAH shook off another poor return by Todd Gurley to still defeat B-Horns 172-71 and finish with a 9-4 record in my CBSSports.com PPR league. In my Yahoo standard league, the Derelicts rode Miami’s defense producing 17 points to a 77-75 win over WATTer Girl (who incidentally is owned by my wife, Jana, who is going to the playoffs in this league while I am out).

 

Good Luck In Week 14!

– Tyler Morning Telegraph staff writer Chris Parry has been an avid fantasy football player since his collegiate days at Texas Tech in the late 90s. His fantasy football takeaway appears each Thursday. Any questions or comments can be emailed to cparry@tylerpaper.com or tweeted to @CParryETFS