History shows that 2016 race isn’t over

Published 4:11 am Wednesday, October 28, 2015

 

Here’s an Associated Press headline to calm anyone hyperventilating about the 2016 presidential race. It’s from Oct. 12, 2011, and it reads “Herman Cain’s sudden surge powered by 9-9-9 plan.”

The subhead, “Can he be stopped?” was added to other versions of the story.

Herman who? You’ll recall he was a pizza magnate whose star shone briefly in the political sky that year. But as sure as his star rose, it fell precipitously. He’s now on talk radio and does some public speaking.

So everyone who is obsessing over headlines like “Can Trump be stopped?” and “Can Ben Carson win?” and even “Why Bernie Sanders Can’t Win” should please just calm down. Here’s what’s important to remember at this stage in the presidential race: no one has voted. No one is going to vote for months. People answering polls don’t have the same sense of gravity they do when they go, alone, into a voting booth and put finger to touch screen.

It’s said a week is an eternity in politics, and that’s true. Let’s look more closely at Cain’s rising star on that October day in 2011.



“If there’s a policy star in the Republican presidential primary it may be Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 tax overhaul plan,” the AP reported. “It has helped fuel the Georgia businessman’s sudden surge in the GOP race. But behind the catchy slogan is a reality: Experts say it will raise taxes on some Americans.”

A couple of things are going on in this passage. First, there’s a recognition that Cain was connecting to voters with a good – if simplistic – idea. That happens during political campaigns.

The second thing going on in this passage from AP is that the idea was eventually evaluated. Cain shot to frontrunner status on the basis of his 9-9-9 tax plan (a combination of flat tax rates) – and as frontrunner, his ideas were soon examined more closely.

Sure, much of the criticism of the plan came from his primary opponents, but some came from the Democrats, as well.

“But while some are swayed by the plan’s simplicity – it can fit on a bumper sticker compared with Mitt Romney’s 160-page plan – critics on the left say it would place a greater tax burden on middle- and low-income Americans by stripping away deductions that currently complicate the federal tax code,” AP reported.

An idea or a policy should withstand scrutiny from any quarter.

What killed this particular idea was the “9” part of it that wasn’t personal income tax and wasn’t corporate income tax. The third “9” was a national sales tax. And no one wanted to give the feds a new revenue stream to exploit.

The point here is that the primary process worked as it should. Cain’s star began to dim under the light of close examination of his policies. Personal accusations that came later were almost incidental. He was done, and out of the race, by Dec. 3, 2011.

So let’s calm down. Let’s breathe. The 2016 race is far from over.