Election wisdom from fairy tales

Published 7:14 pm Thursday, August 20, 2015

 

Louisiana held one of the nation’s first straw polls last week. It wasn’t widely reported, but Sen. Ted Cruz’s win there shows he has some strength in the South.

But what, exactly, is a straw poll? Great question.

It’s going to get confusing over the next few months. With straw polls, caucuses and primaries, picking a party’s presidential nominee is a complicated process, and voters might not even be sure just how much their ballot counts.

But the three little pigs are here to help.

You know the story – the first pig builds a house of straw, the second builds a house of sticks and the third builds a modest brick home that is subsequently appraised for twice what he thought it would be.



These roughly correspond with straw polls, caucuses and primaries.

Early in the primary process, presidential candidates are roaming around the countryside just like those little pigs. They’re all seeking shelter in the form of confirmation that voters like them. But in the end, they’ll need real bricks – convention delegates, who are won in the later primary elections.

Straw polls are named for straws in the wind – they show drift and direction. But they’re also like straw houses in their infirmity.

Straw polls are generally the first votes cast in the party nomination process. And as later developments show, they don’t actually mean much.

Still, straw polls have some importance to the candidates. Success can sometimes mean more credibility and more contributions.

Like a straw house, though, the straw poll isn’t worth much in terms of functionality. It’s informal, and the candidate doesn’t win convention delegates in it. The famous Iowa straw poll, in fact, won’t even be held this year; the Iowa GOP decided it’s not worth the effort.

Caucuses, on the other hand, are a little sturdier than straw polls, in terms of political significance. But they’re still unsteady, like a house of sticks.

Caucuses can be important – the Iowa Democratic caucus, for example, revived John Kerry’s campaign in 2004. But in 1988, Bob Dole trounced George H.W. Bush in the Republican caucus there, though Bush went on to win the nomination and the presidency.

But the votes that really count are the ones garnered in primaries, because that’s where delegates are won, and delegates determine who gets the party’s nomination.

The first primary is traditionally New Hampshire and this cycle, it’s scheduled for Feb. 9, 2016.

The big date to watch, however, is going to be Super Tuesday, March 1, 2016. That will be when Texas and nine other states – including Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Virginia – will hold their primaries. They’ll be awarding actual delegates.

That means that depending on the margins of victory – one candidate sweeping, say, Texas, Virginia and Georgia – the GOP’s nominee could be clear by that evening. If not, it could be a long spring for the candidates.

Understanding the primary process isn’t hard. And, as usual, a lot of useful knowledge can be found in fairy tales.