KERR'S Week 4 NFL Picks: Being Good and Lucky

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Brice Butler (19) and Dez Bryant (88) during an NFL football game against the Arizona Cardinals, Monday, Sept. 25, 2017, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

Week 3 was a fun one in the NFL, with last-second comebacks, long field goals, shocking calls, overtime and Rick Pitino getting fired.

By the way, I am well aware that Rick Pitino doesn't work in the NFL. I still thought seeing him finally get fired for a lifetime of treating NCAA rules like two-ply toilet paper was fun.

Back to the point, after three games, patterns start to emerge. We can say beyond a shadow of a doubt the Falcons are still a really good team, and also a very lucky one. The Chargers are still good, but very unlucky. And the Bengals are neither, so adjust your expectations accordingly.

We know the Cowboys are pretty much what we expected, a really good team with some exploitable flaws. And the Texans are…something. I'm still not sure yet. They can beat or be beaten by any team at any time, but I like what I'm seeing from Deshaun Watson. He could be the best quarterback in Houston since we were all yelling "Love Ya Blue."

I picked Green Bay to win Thursday, but also picked the Bears to show up and not lose by more than a touchdown. That was a mistake on my part; I underestimated how badly I overestimated Chicago. I won't make that mistake again. I'm now 11-11 straight up, and 8-14 against the spread.

On to the picks for the rest of Week 4. Remember, these are for the purposes of discussion only, and based on my track record, feel free to pick against me. As always, no wagering.

LA Rams (+6.5) at Dallas: The Rams have looked great against the Colts and 49ers, which is definitely grading on a curve. I looked great when I crashed that tee-ball game and hit for the cycle, but it won't mean much when the playoffs roll around.

Pick: Cowboys to win and cover, which means I think they'll win by seven or more.

Carolina (+9.5) at New England: My favorite headline of last week after a hot game in New England? "Patriots Apologize for Charging Fans for Tap Water." Seems like we're not far away from pay-toilets and debit-card-triggered armrests.

Pick: Patriots to win and cover, winning by 10 or more.

New Orleans (-3.5) vs. Miami in London: I prefer to look at the bright side of things. Yes, the Dolphins lost badly last week, but that loss was bad enough they've now covered their hurricane deductible.

Pick: Dolphins to win straight up.

Tennessee (-2) at Houston: The Texans are the most charitable team in the NFL with JJ Watt, Deshaun Watson and the team's inability to stop a quarterback in the last two minutes of games.

Pick: Texans to win straight up.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Baltimore: The Steelers' locker room right now is about as unified as a Real Housewives reunion special.

Pick: Ravens to win straight up.

Indianapolis (+12.5) at Seattle: If the NFL is wondering why their ratings are going down, might I suggest a Google search for "Colts" and "prime-time game."

Pick: Seahawks to win, Colts to cover, which means I think Seattle wins by 12 or less.

I'll also take the Saints-Dolphins game to go over 50.5 points, the Raiders to beat the Broncos, and Louisville college basketball to get the death penalty, or no one to ever get the death penalty again. Good luck, everybody.

- Reid Kerr talks a lot, as his wife always reminds him. Reid's second book, "I Hate It Here: A Love Story," is out now on Amazon.com. You can always tweet questions, comments and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.

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