Fantasy: Receivers now the hot ticket for 2014 drafts
Published 10:44 pm Thursday, January 2, 2014
- Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (17) runs after making a catch against the Green Bay Packers during the second half of last week's game in Chicago. Jeffery provided the best fantasy production this season from his average draft position (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
I had a fantasy football epiphany.
The days of loading up in your fantasy drafts on running backs are over. Trust me. I did it this August and ended up trading both for what are now the hottest commodities in fantasy football — wide receivers.
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Or one of the four stat-stuffing quarterbacks (Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers).
Now, my receivers did not work out (Victor Cruz struggled big time and Roddy White stayed injured too long before breaking out when it was already too late).
But if I have the No. 1 pick in the fantasy draft in 2014, I am taking either Calvin Johnson or Peyton Manning.
I am not going to think about being enticed to grab Adrian Peterson, or even arguably this year’s fantasy MVP, Jamaal Charles. Or even LeSean McCoy, who had a monster season.
Nope.
The first round is all about sure things.
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With the way the rules are created to enable receivers to go across the middle without any danger of being laid out, or just not being able to touch receivers in general, they are going off.
Look at the top point producers from 2013.
Take away the quarterbacks, who always produce the most points — none more this year than Manning who provided his owners a heavenly 652 points — and receivers accounted for 12 of the other top 16 spots. After Charles, McCoy and Matt Forte, the next running back with a strong point production is Knowshon Moreno. Moreno finished with 260 points.
Prior to him are receivers Josh Gordon (341), Calvin Johnson (332), A.J. Green (308), Demaryius Thomas (306), Antonio Brown (282), Alshon Jeffery (276), Brandon Marshall (275), DeSean Jackson (269), Dez Bryant (268), Eric Decker (263) and Andre Johnson (262).
One of the three non-receivers was also a pass catcher, albeit a tight end, Jimmy Graham (295).
Rounding out the top 20 featured running backs Marshawn Lynch (254) and Adrian Peterson (253), and receivers Jordy Nelson (252) and Pierre Garcon (242).
Putting this into a little more perspective, if you played in a 10-team league this season and wanted to draft a running back in the first two rounds, you had only a 25 percent chance of hitting a home run and grabbing one of those high point-total backs.
On the other hand, if you drafted a receiver with one of those picks, you had a 70 percent chance of hitting a homerun with a receiver.
Yeah, I am drafting a receiver next year with my first pick.
FANTASY AWARDS FOR 2013 SEASON
MVP: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos — This was not even close. Many owners probably took Manning in the second round and he produced one of the best, if not the best, fantasy seasons ever with 652 points. He led numerous owners, including both leagues that I plan in, to fantasy titles.
Best ADP: Alshon Jeffery, WR, Denver Broncos — Fantasy experts love to throw out the ADP (Average Draft Position) when discussing players. Well, if we do that based on our 2013 draft in the Dereliction League, then the Best ADP is Jeffery without question. This guy was picked in the ninth round. In many other leagues he wasn’t drafted at all. The guy finished with 276 points and our league is a point-per-2-reception league, so add 40 more points to that total. He is huge production a guy that anyone could’ve had.
Biggest Bust: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens — You could also put Buffalo’s C.J. Spiller here, or Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin, Houston’s Arian Foster or Indianapolis’ Trent Richardson. All of these running backs were taken in the first round of drafts. Rice gets the prize, but he went in the top 5 in many drafts and gave his owners a grand total of 139 points. In our league, Rice was outscored by the likes of DeAngelo Williams (yep, that one), Pierre Thomas and Miami tight end Charles Clay.
Who to circle for 2014?:Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers — Staying with our theme of targeting receivers early in next year’s draft, Allen would be a solid second- or third-round pick. The rookie from Cal emerged as Phillip Rivers’ favorite target to finish with 71 catches for 1,041 yards and eight touchdowns.
Well, that’s all for this year folks. I will return in August of 2014 to get you prepared for next year’s drafts.