Reid Kerr

It’s been a surprisingly consistent year for the Dallas Cowboys. They’re 8-3 and definitely a playoff team that will be dangerous in the postseason. To my way of thinking, there’s just one thing they have to do to set themselves up for the rest of the season, and the future.

Don’t sign Odell Beckham Jr.

I know, this flies against logic. And it undercuts the whole “OBJ World Tour” going on right now, where he visits the top third of the league and makes them grovel before announcing who will receive his rose.

It’s definitely a risk-reward situation here. Last year, OBJ waited until the trade deadline passed and then poisoned the well in Cleveland to get out. Now granted, the Browns have a locker room about as stable as a Real Housewives reunion show panel, but still, that shows a pattern of behavior.

From there he went to the Rams, where he had less than four catches a game. He had decent playoffs, and then could have been the Super Bowl MVP if not for the injury.

He’s undoubtedly the best receiver available on the open market right now. Which, by the way, doesn’t say much. Everybody who can catch and tackle is on a roster or a practice squad already. I’m probably an early-December top 20 free agent too, and my hands are so bad my friends won’t let me hold their pets, children, or fine china.

So summing up, you’ve got a receiver in his ninth season, coming off ACL surgery less than a year ago, who’s already metaphorically left a burning bag of poo in two different locker rooms. Oh, and he’s going to want a big long term contract, while you’ve already got a young nucleus you’re going to have to start paying soon, and you need to do something about the running game next season.

Now, I understand fully that whatever team passes on OBJ is guaranteed to have him absolutely murder them at least once, with probably a three-touchdown game and an intricately choreographed end zone dance. But I still think the short term gains are heavily overweighed by the possibility that he gives you a few games, then his production drops off while he simultaneously ruins your salary cap and locker room.

I understand the “fear of missing out,” or as the kids call it these days, “LOL OK BOOMER TLDR” or whatever gibberish they’re saying this week. The lure of getting that player to take you over the top is very enticing. Look what the Rams did last year in winning a Super Bowl.

Then look at the Rams now, and their outlook for the next several years. And realize that even getting a fully healthy OBJ right now wouldn’t make Dallas the best team in football. Or in the NFC. Or even in their division.

Sometimes, not making a decision is the best decision you can make.

Now on to the picks. Counting the Thanksgiving games last week, I went 7-2 and 5-4 against the Vegas spread. For those of you who think it’s easy picking against point spreads, let me point out I picked the Dolphins to win by more than 14, they won by 15. I picked the Chiefs to win by less than 15-and-a-half, they won by 16. That’s why Vegas casinos are veritable cathedrals of commerce, and my back car door is held closed with a strap and plastic wire ties. I’m now 44-31, and 33-40-2 against Vegas. As always, my picks are for the purposes of comedic discussion only. No wagering.

Indianapolis (+10.5) at Dallas: There are some great games this week, and this definitely isn’t one of them. This starts a three-week run for the Cowboys where they’ll probably be favored by double digits every game, and still somehow manage to lose one of these.

Pick: Cowboys to win but not cover, winning by 10 or fewer.

Cleveland (-7) at Houston: This game is big for Texans fans, their front office, and common decency.

Pick: Browns to win and cover, but this will be a rare occasion where I actually root for Houston.

Washington (-2.5) at NY Giants: This is a big battle between two seven-win teams I admittedly didn’t think would have seven wins between them at the end of the year.

Pick: Commanders to win and cover.

NY Jets (+3) at Minnesota: How can I tell the NFL offices hate the Jets? This is the first of two straight games they play against teams coming off 10 days rest.

Pick: Vikings to win and cover, winning by four or more.

Tennessee (+4.5) at Philadelphia: To me, this game feels like the old days of wrestling when the Freebirds would feud with Skandar Akbar’s Devastation Incorporated. I can’t bring myself to root for either one of these teams. Everybody’s a bad guy.

Pick: Titans to win it outright.

Kansas City (-2) at Cincinnati: The AFC can roll out one of these “Great Young QB Battles” about once a week. Meanwhile the NFC gives us a Monday nighter featuring a guy on his fourth team, playing against a legend who was drafted back when you could still take a pocketknife onto an airplane.

Pick: Bengals to win it outright, and I hope I’m wrong.

I’ll also take the 49ers over the Dolphins, Seahawks over the Rams, and fake Christmas trees over real ones. Good luck, everybody.

— Reid Kerr is already planning to forget to send out Christmas cards. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.